The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will face off on Sunday in the final day of the 2025 MLB regular season. New York is playing for the American League East title today, while Baltimore is playing for nothing but pride. Before the action begins at Yankee Stadium, continue reading to get my thoughts on this important MLB matchup, including my Orioles vs Yankees prediction for today.
Our Orioles vs Yankees Pick
- Pick: Yankees -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 3:05 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Kyle Bradish vs Luis Gil
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: YES (New York), MASN (Baltimore)
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Luis Gil of the Yankees has been a stabilizing presence in the rotation and he is New York’s starter in this finale. The Orioles have gone with Kyle Bradish to toe the rubber. Bradish has battled with his health but has looked very good since returning from injury. Gil is in the same boat and will try to make one last quality start in a high-stakes game.
Key Players
- Aaron Judge: He crushed his 53rd home run on Saturday and is heating up at the plate. He remains central to New York’s chance of winning the AL East.
- Giancarlo Stanton & Ryan McMahon: Both homered in Saturday’s 6-1 win, providing additional power for the Yankees’ offense.
- Baltimore bullpen: If Bradish leaves the game early, the Orioles’ relievers will be under pressure against a very good Yankees lineup.
Recent team streaks
- The Yankees have won seven straight games and 10 of their last 11.
- Baltimore has dropped two straight games coming into Sunday.
- New York is tied with Toronto atop the AL East, but Toronto holds the tiebreaker. A win by New York is essential for them to have a chance to overtake Toronto.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Giancarlo Stanton | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Luis Gil | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Yankees are 8-4 against the Orioles this season going into their final matchup of the year.
- New York has won four straight games over the Orioles.
- The Yankees are 49-31 at home this season.
- Baltimore is 36-44 in their road games during the 2025 campaign.
Orioles vs Yankees Model Projection
Score Projection: Orioles 3 – Yankees 6
Win Probability: Orioles 40%, Yankees 60%
Final Thoughts
The Yankees should win today to do their part in their attempt to win the AL East. I think that New York will cover the runline today, as their offense should stake them to a lead and they will do enough on the mound to hold on in the end. I’m not sure that Toronto will lose today to elevate the Yankees to a division title, but New York will do its part.
