The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays will meet in Sunday’s regular-season finale at Rogers Centre. This contest carries more weight than your average regular-season game. For Toronto, it’s a chance to clinch the AL East outright and secure a higher seed in the postseason. Tampa Bay will try to prevent that from happening. Here, I break down this AL East matchup and bring you my Rays vs Blue Jays prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Rays vs Blue Jays Pick
- Pick: Blue Jays −1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 3:07 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Ian Seymour (Rays) vs Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays)
- Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: SNET (Canada) / FDS SUN (Florida regional)
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Toronto is handing the ball to Kevin Gausman for this huge game. Gausman enters with a 10–11 record and a 3.47 ERA over 189.1 innings. He’s been a steady workhorse for the Jays this year and will try to deliver the Jays the most important win of their season so far in this spot.
Tampa Bay will give the ball to Ian Seymour. He is 4–2 with a 2.85 ERA in 53.2 innings. Seymour has allowed just seven earned runs over his last 30.1 innings. Toronto’s offense will need to get him out of sorts early if they want to avoid a letdown.
Recent team streaks
Tampa Bay has dropped both games in this series thus far and is 77–84 on the season. They’ve dropped three games in a row and four of their last five games. Toronto is 93–68 and locked in a battle with the Yankees for the AL East crown. They currently hold the tiebreaker. Toronto is 53–27 at home and they have won three straight games coming into the final day of the regular season.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| George Springer (TOR) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tampa Bay is 7-5 against the Blue Jays so far this season.
- The home team has won four straight games between these squads this season.
Rays vs Blue Jays Model Projection
Score Projection: Rays 3 – Blue Jays 5
Win Probability: Rays 38%, Blue Jays 62%
Final Thoughts
Toronto is the favorite here and for good reason. They’re fighting for the division title and have home-field advantage, a superior offense, and better bullpen depth. Gausman is capable of handling the pressure, and even though he’s not flawless, the lineup behind him gives him margin for error. Seymour has been solid but is less battle-tested and the Jays should be able to get to him as this game goes on. I expect Toronto to do enough to grab a win and lock down the AL East.
