Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Game 4 Prediction – 9/28/2025

The Phoenix Mercury will host Game 4 of their WNBA semifinal series against the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday. The stakes could not be higher, as Phoenix leads the series 2–1 and has a chance to punch its ticket to the WNBA Finals with a win at home. Minnesota will try to respond under pressure after two straight losses, with uncertainty surrounding the health of star forward Napheesa Collier. Here, I break down this matchup and bring you my Lynx vs Mercury Game 4 prediction.

Our Lynx vs Mercury Game 4 Pick

• Pick: Phoenix Mercury -4
• Confidence: 3 out of 5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury
• Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
• Broadcast: ESPN

Lynx vs Mercury Game 4 Odds

Key Storylines

• Collier injury status: Napheesa Collier exited Game 3 late with what appeared to be a leg/ankle issue. She is listed as a game-time decision for Game 4. One would expect her to play given how important this game is for the Lynx. But her availability and effectiveness will dramatically influence Minnesota’s chances in this must-win game.
• Fourth-quarter execution: Phoenix has consistently delivered in late-game situations during this series. In Game 3, they outscored Minnesota 21–9 in the fourth quarter and sealed the win via a steal by Alyssa Thomas. Minnesota has struggled to close the last two games and they need to fix that to stay alive in this series.
• Refereeing tensions: Minnesota’s head coach Cheryl Reeve was ejected late in Game 3 after vehemently protesting a non-call tied to Collier’s injury. She went onto call the officiating “malpractice” in her postgame presser. The officiating will be a focal point in this contest as well.
• Home court advantage: Phoenix plays at home in this elimination game and will attempt to feed off the energy of the crowd to secure the series and advance to the Finals.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

Past meetings: Minnesota won the regular-season series between these teams 3-1. In the playoff series so far, Phoenix leads their semifinal series 2–1. Minnesota still holds a 4-3 advantage in the head-to-head with Phoenix this year. But the Mercury are leading in the playoffs, where it counts.

ATS records: The Mercury are 2-1 against the spread in this series so far. The winner of each game has covered the spread, regardless of whether they were a favorite or underdog. This is the first game of this series where Phoenix is favored so far.

Best Player Props to Watch

Lynx vs Mercury Game 4 Model Projection

Score Projection: Minnesota 77 – Phoenix 85

Win Probability: Minnesota 36%, Phoenix 64%

Final Thoughts

If Napheesa Collier is able to play and be effective for the Lynx, the above projections and probabilities will change dramatically. But if she’s as hurt as she appeared to be when she left Game 3, a great season for the Lynx is likely to end on Sunday night. I’ll lay the points with Phoenix for now, but I urge bettors to find out more on Collier’s status before locking anything in here.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.