Oklahoma vs Texas Pick & Prediction – 10/11/2025

Oklahoma and Texas will meet in the annual Red River Rivalry game on Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma comes into this game ranked sixth in the country and looking to stay undefeated. Texas has had a disappointing season so far and will try to turn things around against their rivals. Here, you can find my Oklahoma vs Texas prediction before kickoff in this huge game.

Our Oklahoma vs Texas Pick

• Pick: Oklahoma Moneyline
• Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns
• Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
• Broadcast: ABC

Oklahoma vs Texas Odds

Key Storylines

• John Mateer is set to play in this contest for Oklahoma. There was some uncertainty surrounding Mateer’s status earlier in the week due to Mateer needing surgery for a broken hand. As long as he isn’t hampered by that injury, the Sooners will love their chances to win this rivalry game.
• After a 29–21 loss at Florida, Texas has dropped out of the AP Top 25. Their offense has shown flashes under Arch Manning, but questions about Manning’s ability to throw the football consistently have become a factor for the Longhorns.
• Oklahoma’s defense has been elite so far this season. The Sooners allow 8.3 points per game, leading the nation in that department. Their pass rush and front seven will challenge Texas’ o-line and receivers all day.
• The Red River rivalry in Dallas is technically a neutral-site game, with both fan bases represented in the stands. The team that can stand up to that pressure the best will give themselves a huge edge.
• Texas leads the all-time series 64–51–5 and has dominated many recent editions of this rivalry. But Oklahoma’s early-season form gives them renewed belief in this game.

Quarterback Play

Mateer has been one of the best players in college football when healthy. He has thrown for over 1,200 yards this season with six passing touchdowns and three interceptions. He is also a gifted runner and will try to impact the game in multiple ways as well.

Arch Manning has had mixed results for Texas, with growing criticisms of his mechanics becoming a major story this season. If Texas’ offensive line can hold, Manning’s arm talent will have to stand on its own to win this game.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Texas is 1-4 against the spread so far this season.
• Oklahoma is 2-2-1 against the spread on the year.
• Texas has had three of their first five games go under their totals.
• All five Oklahoma games this season have stayed under their totals.

Oklahoma vs Texas Model Projection

Score Projection: Texas 24 – Oklahoma 28
Win Probability: Texas 49%, Oklahoma 51%

Final Thoughts

This edition of the Red River Rivalry game will have a huge impact on the SEC standings and the College Football Playoff race. I think that Oklahoma has the inside track to get the win, so long as Mateer is able to make it through the game without having to exit due to injury. Oklahoma’s defense should make life miserable for Manning and the Longhorns and the Sooners should stay unbeaten after this contest is completed.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.