The Washington Commanders (2–2) will go up against the Los Angeles Chargers (3–1) on Sunday in NFL Week 5 action. The Chargers are coming off a disappointing loss in Week 4 to the New York Giants, while Washington suffered a similarly disheartening defeat to the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams will look to bounce back from underwhelming performances here, and you can continue reading to get my Commanders vs Chargers prediction for Sunday.
Our Commanders vs Chargers Pick
- Pick: Chargers −3
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers
- Date & Time: Sunday, October 5, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
- Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Broadcast: FOX
Commanders vs Chargers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers −3 | Chargers −145, Commanders +125 | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
- Washington’s health: Washington has been hamstrung by absences. Quarterback Jayden Daniels missed time and top wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been sidelined. The offense has had to lean on Marcus Mariota and elevate supporting pieces into starting roles. Their passing game is less reliable without being at full strength.
- Chargers back at home: After a 21–18 loss on the road to the Giants, the Chargers will attempt to bounce back at home. Justin Herbert threw two interceptions against New York, and their offense stalled in key spots. Back at home, the Chargers will aim to get back into the win column and improve to 4-1.
- Defensive discrepancies: Washington’s defense showed cracks in their loss to Atlanta, giving up chunk plays to a Falcons offense that has struggled for the most part this season. The Chargers’ defense was not their problem against the Giants, as they held rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart and the Giants’ offense to 21 points.
Quarterback Play
If Jayden Daniels returns, that will help the Commanders’ offense immensely. Pass protection will be important no matter who is at quarterback this week, as Washington will have to block a Chargers pass rush that ranks fourth in the league with 13 sacks as a team.
Justin Herbert will seek redemption after laying an egg against the Giants. After the turnover-heavy game in Week 4, he’ll be motivated to limit mistakes while attacking Washington’s secondary. Herbert has seven touchdowns and three interceptions going into Week 5.
Betting Trends
- The Chargers are 2-1-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Washington is 2-2 against the spread through four weeks.
- Washington has split their over/unders 2-2 through Week 4.
- The Chargers have had three of their first four games go under their totals.
Commanders vs Chargers Model Projection
Score Projection: Washington 20 – Los Angeles 27
Win Probability: Washington 40%, Chargers 60%
Final Thoughts
This feels like a textbook bounce-back spot for Los Angeles. Washington’s quarterback uncertainly will not do them any favors here. But even if Jayden Daniels is able to play, I will lay the points with the Chargers as they should get back on track at home against a Washington defense that has not been convincing over the last few weeks.
