The Missouri State Bears will face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in college football on Wednesday night. Missouri State enters this midweek Conference USA game in Murfreesboro with a chance to get to the .500 mark against a Blue Raiders squad that has struggled to find consistency in 2025. Both teams are looking for their first CUSA win of the season. Before kickoff, continue reading to get my Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee prediction.
Our Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Pick
- Pick: Missouri State -2.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Missouri State Bears vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 8, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri State –2.5 | Missouri State –135 / Middle Tennessee +115 | 49.5 |
Key Storylines
- Midweek game: Playing on a Wednesday night is always an adjustment for the combatants. Both of these teams have had an idle week before this game, though, which could make the transition less of a problem.
- Passing edge: Missouri State quarterback Jacob Clark has thrown for 1,195 yards, with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. His connection with target Dash Luke (310 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns) gives the Bears a more stable aerial attack. Middle Tennessee starter Nicholas Vattiato has produced 1,125 passing yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has thrown a higher volume of passes but has been less efficient.
- Running game: The Bears’ running attack is led by Shomari Lawrence (286 yards, two touchdowns). The Blue Raiders’ backfield is anchored by Jekail Middlebrook, who has 340 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Middle Tennessee has been more productive on the ground but that hasn’t translated into wins.
- Defense and turnovers: Missouri State has allowed 31.6 points per game, while Middle Tennessee concedes 31.0 points per game. Whichever defense can get stops more consistently will give their team a great chance to win here.
- Historical anomaly: These teams have met only once previously, in 1986, when Missouri State won 42–19 on the road. There is no recent head-to-head history to lean on when handicapping this game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Missouri State is 3-2 against the spread coming into this matchup.
- Middle Tennessee is 1-4 against the spread so far this season.
- Four of Missouri State’s five games have stayed under their totals.
- Middle Tennessee has seen three of their first five games stay under their totals.
Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Model Projection
Score Projection: Missouri State 24 – Middle Tennessee 20
Win Probability: Missouri State 60%, Middle Tennessee 40%
Final Thoughts
This is not the most attractive game on the college football schedule in Week 7, to put it gently. Missouri State is in its first season after transitioning from FCS competition and are looking for their first-ever win in CUSA play. Middle Tennessee has a loss to an FCS team under its belt already this season and is one of the worst teams in college football. I’ll lay the points with Missouri State based on my projections, but nothing would surprise me in this game.
