Liberty will travel to El Paso to take on UTEP in a Conference USA matchup in college football on Wednesday night. Both teams are off to rough starts in CUSA and overall. A win here would go a long way toward stabilizing the team that can grab it. Here, I break down this matchup between teams looking for their first conference win and give you my Liberty vs UTEP prediction.
Our Liberty vs UTEP Pick
- Pick: UTEP Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Liberty Flames @ UTEP Miners
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 8, 2025; 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
- Broadcast: CBSSN
Liberty vs UTEP Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty –1.5 | Liberty –125 / UTEP +105 | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
- Liberty’s Offensive Adjustment Without Salter: Liberty used to lean heavily on quarterback Kaidon Salter to find offensive success. With Salter gone, new signal-caller Ethan Vasko has not done a good job of filling Salter’s shoes. The Flames have lost four games in a row and the offense needs to be better to end that losing streak.
- UTEP Also Struggling: UTEP is also winless against FBS competition so far this year. They have lost three games in a row and turnovers have been a big reason for their struggles. Quarterback Malachi Nelson has thrown nine interceptions through five games and he simply has to do a better job of taking care of the football if UTEP is going to break into the win column against an FBS opponent for the first time in 2025.
- Conference USA Implications: Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the CUSA standings going into this week. A second straight conference loss would make it very difficult for either of these teams to climb back up the standings and get into a position to play for the conference title later in the season. We should see that desperation on both sides given the huge implications of this game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Liberty is 1-4 against the spread going into this matchup.
- UTEP is 2-3 after their first five games of the season.
- UTEP has had three of their first five games stay under their totals going into this week’s game.
- Liberty has had four of their first five games stay under their totals.
- Liberty is 2-0 all-time against UTEP. The Flames won both of those games by double-digits, with those matchups coming in 2023 and 2024.
Liberty vs UTEP Model Projection
Score Projection: Liberty 24 – UTEP 27
Win Probability: Liberty 46% | UTEP 54%
Final Thoughts
Frankly, there are better things to bet on in sports on Wednesday night than this game. But if you do feel compelled to wager on this Conference USA matchup, I think that UTEP is the way to go here. Liberty is winless on the road for the season. And while UTEP’s only home win came against an FCS opponent, home-field advantage is one of the only things either of these teams could possibly have going for it right now. I’ll take UTEP as a slight underdog at home.
