The Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty finally get their first crack at each other in the 2026 regular season, and the timing could not be better. Both franchises spent the past two weeks colliding with rivals in the Commissioner’s Cup, and now the league’s top seed rolls into Barclays Center trying to knock off the cup winners. Before this important game in the W, continue reading to get my thoughts and my Lynx vs Liberty prediction.
Our Lynx vs Liberty Prediction
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -1.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Lynx vs Liberty Model Projection
- Score Projection: Minnesota Lynx 88, New York Liberty 82
- Win Probability: Minnesota Lynx 58%, New York Liberty 42%
Minnesota is our model’s choice, largely because its two-way efficiency has been the best in the league for two months running. The Lynx own the league’s best Net Rating at +13.4, while carrying the league’s best Defensive Rating at 97.4, a level of balance almost no other roster in the WNBA can claim. New York counters with size, shooting depth and a champion’s pedigree, but the Liberty are breaking in a first-year coach and have been without key pieces for stretches of the season, which should make the difference here.
Expect a tight opening quarter before Minnesota’s defensive connectivity starts forcing tough looks and live-ball turnovers in transition. New York’s size up front with Jonquel Jones and Stewart shouldn’t be enough to overcome the defensive acumen of the Lynx, who should get an important win in this matchup.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty
- Date and Time: Friday, July 3, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
- Broadcast: ION
Lynx vs Liberty Same Game Parlay
- Minnesota Lynx Moneyline -142
- Total Under 173.5 -108
- Natasha Howard Over 8.5 Rebounds +118
Combined odds for this three-leg Same Game Parlay: +490 on DraftKings Sportsbook
The reasoning here starts with Minnesota’s floor. The Liberty are 9-11-0 against the spread this season while the Lynx have put together a 14-5-0 ATS record, a gap that speaks to how consistently Minnesota has covered its number regardless of opponent. The under piece is supported by the pace of these two rosters when they lock in defensively. Howard rounds out the card given her career-best 8.2 rebounds per game this year, a workload that should only grow busier against a Liberty frontcourt that has battled injuries all season.
Lynx vs Liberty Prop Bet
Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 Points at -101 on DraftKings Sportsbook stands out as the top individual play for this one. Stewart has scored in double digits in every game but one this season and just closed out a Commissioner’s Cup run with a scoring outburst that included a 25-point, 11-rebound effort in New York’s win over Las Vegas. With Satou Sabally sidelined and Ionescu still finding her rhythm after an injury-plagued start, Stewart’s usage figures to remain high in this matchup.
Betting Trends and Head to Head
- Head to head this season: 0-0, first meeting of the 2026 regular season.
- Minnesota Lynx against the spread: 14-5-0 this season.
- New York Liberty against the spread: 9-11-0 this season.
- Minnesota Lynx over/under: 9-10 this season.
- New York Liberty over/under: 11-9 this season.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Minnesota Lynx | New York Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | 110.8 | 109.6 |
| Defensive Rating | 97.4 | 104.2 |
| Net Rating | +13.4 | +5.4 |
| Pace | 97.83 | 95.52 |
| Effective FG % | 54.3% | 53.9% |
| Rebound % | 52.3% | 52.6% |
Both teams have been lethal offensively this season, but the Lynx have held the upper hand on the defensive end of the floor. That should be the difference maker in this inter-conference contest from Brooklyn, and the reason our model projects the Lynx as the winner in the game of the night in the W on Friday.
More WNBA Betting Resources
