The Bronx hosts an intriguing series opener on Friday night as the Minnesota Twins (42-46) travel east to face the New York Yankees (48-38) at Yankee Stadium. New York enters July having stumbled through a rough patch since late June, while Minnesota arrives fresh off a series in Houston having won three of their last four games. Gerrit Cole takes the mound for New York, opposing a Twins lineup that could be without its best power source. Here, I break down Twins vs Yankees and make my pick in the betting markets.
Our Twins vs Yankees Prediction
- Pick: Yankees -1.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Twins vs Yankees Model Projection
- Score Projection: Yankees 6 – Twins 3
- Win Probability: Yankees 61%, Twins 39%
New York’s pitching staff has quietly become one of the better units in the American League, sitting at a 3.36 team ERA on the season, and even with Cole still working his way back to full strength, the bullpen gives the Yankees a real advantage over a Twins offense that will be shorthanded. Minnesota starter Mike Paredes has posted a 4.26 ERA with just 4.6 strikeouts per nine innings, a concerning number against a New York lineup that still features Ben Rice and other weapons, even with Aaron Judge sidelined.
Our projection leans toward New York covering the run line. Minnesota’s bullpen has been inconsistent enough this season that a late lead for the Yankees feels more secure than the moneyline price alone would suggest.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Friday, July 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Mike Paredes (RHP, 0-1, 4.26 ERA) vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP, 2-2, 3.62 ERA)
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Twins vs Yankees Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Yankees Moneyline (-186)
- Leg 2: Ben Rice Over 1.5 Total Bases (-126)
- Leg 3: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-104)
Total Parlay Odds: +430
The reasoning here starts with New York’s pitching staff, which has allowed the fewest runs per game of any AL East club, giving the moneyline a solid floor even with Cole on a pitch count. Rice has been the most productive Yankees bat all season, slugging .561 with 23 home runs, and he draws a favorable matchup in this contest. The under ties the two together nicely, since Minnesota is dealing with an injury to Byron Buxton, its home run leader, and both bullpens have shown they can hold down the middle innings when needed.
Twins vs Yankees Home Run Prop
Ben Rice to hit a home run: +212 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rice has been arguably the most dangerous bat in the Yankees lineup for weeks, and his high slugging percentage and 23 home runs in 76 games put him near the top of the league leaderboard at his position. Facing Paredes, a righty who has already allowed four home runs in just 25.1 innings this season, Rice looks like a strong value play at plus money against a pitcher still finding his footing at the big league level.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between the two clubs in 2026, with two more games remaining this weekend before a September series in Minnesota.
- Yankees Home Record: 22-18
- Twins Road Record: 20-23
Stat Comparison
| Category | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .246 | .236 |
| OPS | .733 | .740 |
| wOBA | .323 | .324 |
| wRC+ | 104 | 107 |
| Team ERA | 4.82 | 3.36 |
| xFIP | 4.56 | 3.89 |
The Yankees’ power numbers are a bit inflated by the games where Aaron Judge was healthy. But New York’s offense should be able to do enough here to get a win and cover the runline nonetheless, as they look to halt their recent slide and fight their way closer to the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East standings.
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