Portugal didn’t look like world champions for most of the group stage. A 1-1 draw with DR Congo on opening night, a fortunate 0-0 draw against Colombia that handed Los Cafeteros top spot, and a Ronaldo who looked every bit the 41-year-old against anyone who pressed him. The futures market noticed. Portugal drifted from around +1060 out to +1300 after the Colombia stalemate, slipping behind France, Argentina, England and Spain on most boards.
So why am I still not ruling them out? Because the thing that wins knockout football, control of the middle of the pitch, is the one thing Portugal already do better than anyone left in the bracket.
The Midfield is the Best in the Tournament
Strip away the Ronaldo noise and look at what this midfield produced over three games. Portugal finished the group stage first in the entire competition in passes per possession at 9.2, and first in pass completion at 91.3%. Vitinha completed more progressive passes through two matches than Qatar, Cape Verde or Paraguay managed as whole teams.
Add Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Nuno Mendes overlapping from the left, and João Neves, who got Portugal in front against DR Congo with a header inside six minutes, and you’ve got a group that can keep the ball away from better attacking teams for ninety minutes. That’s a knockout-round superpower. You can’t lose a shootout you never let the other side reach.
Furthermore, with the weather really heating up as we head into July, teams who control possession are going to grow into the tournament. Research from Science Weekly found that the accuracy of players passing actually improves in heat stress conditions. With the Portuguese in possession of arguably two of the best passers in the world, accompanied by a player in Ronaldo who, despite his limitations at this stage of his career, is capable of punishing even the slightest heat-induced error, then you have a recipe for success.
Diogo Costa is Outstanding
The Colombia game told two stories. Colombia battered Portugal, 24 shots to 13, an xG edge of 1.63 to 0.69, and a goal disallowed for being (literally) a toe offside. Yet Portugal still walked out with a clean sheet because Diogo Costa made six saves and kept his second shutout in a row. Goalkeepers win World Cups in tight brackets. Portugal have one playing at the top of his game right now, and a back line that’s conceded once in three matches.
The Ronaldo Question: Better as an Impact Sub?
He was ordinary against Colombia. He was passive against DR Congo. But he also became the first player ever to score in six different World Cups with his double against Uzbekistan in the 5-0, and the wider point is that Portugal don’t need a prime Ronaldo to go deep.
They need him to finish two or three of the chances this midfield manufactures. Roberto Martínez has the squad depth to rotate the front line and lean on the engine room. If the captain becomes a penalty-box poacher or late gam finisher from the bench, this team gets better, not worse.
They’ve Already Beaten the Best
Memories are short in football, and this is already being forgotten. Portugal lifted the UEFA Nations League last summer, and they did it by beating Spain in the final and knocking off Germany along the way. The pedigree players in their squad showed up against the exact opponents they’d need to get past now. A team that can win a one-off against Spain when it counts is a team you keep in your bracket, no matter how the group looked.
Diamonds are Created Under Pressure
I’m not going to pretend the draw is kind. Croatia first, in Toronto on July 2, with Luka Modric still bending matches around his 40-year-old legs. Win that and the reward is most likely Spain in the Round of 16, the European champions who conceded nothing in their group. That’s a tricky early gauntlet to negotiate. But it’s also why the price is what it is. Portugal aren’t +1300 because they lack talent. They’re +1300 because the bracket asks them to beat a contender early, and the market doubts they’re sharp enough to do it.
My Verdict
At +1300, I think the value remains in this pick. Portugal open around -290 to advance past Croatia and -130 on the 90-minute line, and I’m backing them to progress. The futures ticket is a different animal. I’m not betting the house on a team that needs to redefine Ronaldo’s role in the team to have a shot at winning the tournament.
But a small futures position at this number, on the best ball-controlling side in the tournament with a goalkeeper this hot, is a bet I can live with. The door isn’t shut, and if they can negotiate two other technically outstanding opponents, who is to say that a side all but written off after a shaky group stage can’t go all the way once more.
More Soccer Betting Picks
