The flyweight matchup between Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson is one of the most intriguing fights on the UFC Baku main card on June 27. While it may not carry the same spotlight as the headliner, it has major implications in the UFC flyweight rankings. Almabayev enters the bout as the higher-ranked contender and betting favorite, bringing an elite wrestling game and a strong finishing ability on the mat. Johnson arrives as a dangerous veteran whose striking volume, durability, and willingness to fight anyone have made him one of the division’s toughest outs.
With both men currently ranked inside the UFC’s flyweight top 15, the winner could move into position for a matchup against a top-five contender later this year. Johnson is attempting to keep the fight standing while Almabayev looks to impose his wrestling and control game.
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson Prediction
- Pick: Asu Almabayev by Decision
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
- Win Probability: Asu Almabayev 64%, Charles Johnson 36%
Johnson has become one of the most dangerous underdogs in the division. He throws at a high pace, owns knockout power for a flyweight, and has shown improvements in his takedown defense over the last several years. His 5-inch reach advantage and willingness to attack from range could create problems if Almabayev struggles to close the distance between these fighters.
However, Almabayev’s grappling credentials are difficult to overlook. He averages well over four takedowns per 15 minutes and has built much of his UFC success through relentless pressure, chain wrestling, and positional control. Johnson has historically struggled most against opponents who can consistently force grappling exchanges, and Almabayev is one of the better wrestlers in the division.
The key question is whether Almabayev can secure repeated takedowns. If he does, Johnson will likely spend significant portions of the fight defending from the bottom position. If Johnson keeps the fight standing for extended stretches, his striking output could make things very competitive.
Given Almabayev’s recent victories over ranked competition and the stylistic advantages he holds on the ground, he deserves his status as the favorite. Johnson’s toughness should allow him to survive and remain competitive, but over three rounds, Almabayev’s wrestling is likely to be the deciding factor.
The most likely outcome is a competitive but clear decision victory for Almabayev. Johnson should have moments on the feet, but Almabayev’s grappling control is expected to win rounds and secure another ranked victory.
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson Parlay
- Asu Almabayev Moneyline: -255
- Fight Goes to Decision: -225
- Parlay Odds: -105
The first leg centers on Almabayev’s wrestling advantage. He has consistently controlled opponents through takedowns and top pressure, and his style translates well against Johnson. While Johnson possesses dangerous striking, Almabayev has demonstrated the ability to neutralize opponents with sustained grappling pressure.
The second leg targets the likelihood of a full three-round fight. Johnson has proven exceptionally durable throughout his UFC career and is difficult to finish. Almabayev certainly owns submission upside, but his approach often prioritizes control and winning rounds rather than aggressively chasing finishes. Combining Almabayev’s moneyline with the fight going the distance provides a solid balance between value and realistic fight expectations.
Tale of the Tape
| Category | Asu Almabayev | Charles Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 35 |
| Height | 5’4″ | 5’9″ |
| Reach | 65″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Record | 23-3 | 19-8 |
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson Preview
Almabayev enters this fight with a 23-3 professional record and has established himself as one of the strongest grapplers in the flyweight division. He owns 10 submission victories and has steadily climbed the rankings through a combination of relentless wrestling and efficient control. His most recent victory came against former title challenger Alex Perez, a result that significantly boosted his standing in the division.
Statistically, Almabayev averages 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing more than 40% of his attempts. Those numbers rank among the strongest in the division and reflect his commitment to a wrestling-heavy approach. Once he gets opponents to the canvas, he is excellent at maintaining control and limiting offensive opportunities.
Johnson brings a completely different style. The American veteran is a volume striker who averages nearly five significant strikes landed per minute. His length, movement, and ability to switch stances make him difficult to prepare for. Johnson has earned several notable wins during his UFC run and continues to prove he belongs among the division’s top contenders.
One concern for Johnson is the stylistic matchup. While his takedown defense has improved, Almabayev presents a level of wrestling pressure that few flyweights can replicate. Johnson’s striking advantage is clear on paper, but he will need substantial time on the feet to fully utilize it.
The reach advantage favors Johnson by 5 inches, and if he can establish his jab and force Almabayev into long-range exchanges, the fight could become much closer than the odds suggest. Still, Almabayev’s wrestling has consistently been his equalizer against opponents with superior striking credentials.
More UFC Picks
