Vegas and Anaheim meet in Game 4 on Sunday night after the Golden Knights delivered their most complete performance of the series in a 6-2 road win. Vegas now leads 2-1, and with Mitch Marner heating up, Jack Eichel driving play, and Anaheim facing real uncertainty in net, the Golden Knights look like the value side again at near-even money. However, Mark Stone’s injury status adds real risk and keeps this from being a high-confidence bet.
Quick Pick
- Best Bet: Vegas Golden Knights moneyline
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
- Win Probability: Vegas 54% | Anaheim 46%
- Best Value Angle: Market may be underpricing VGK after a dominant 6-2 blowout, particularly if Stone’s injury proves minor and Dostal starts cold in net again.
Why This Bet Has Value
Vegas just put on a clinic in Game 3 — 6 goals on 28 shots, a shorthanded goal, a power play goal, and Mitch Marner completing a hat trick before the midpoint of the second period. They did this on Anaheim’s home ice in a building that had gone 3-0 for the Ducks in these playoffs. That is not a typical road performance. The Golden Knights didn’t steal a close game — they led 3-0 after 20 minutes and never looked back.
The market question heading into Game 4 is whether it prices all of that correctly — or whether it is distracted by 2 issues creating genuine uncertainty. First, captain Mark Stone left Game 3 with a lower-body injury in the first period and did not return for the third. His status for Sunday is unknown at the time of publication. Second, Lukas Dostal was pulled after surrendering 3 goals on just 8 shots in the first period, and it is unclear whether Quenneville will hand the crease back to him or turn to backup Ville Husso. These 2 factors are legitimately meaningful and are why confidence stays at 3 out of 5 rather than higher. But if Stone can go and Dostal gets the nod, the edge tilts clearly to Vegas.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks
- Date and Time: May 10, 2026 — 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Honda Center, Anaheim
- Series Score: Vegas leads 2-1
In the Eastern Conference, Buffalo and Montreal meet on Sunday with the series tied 1-1 and momentum up for grabs.
Matchup Breakdown
Key Storylines
The 2 storylines controlling Game 4 both involve injury and uncertainty. Mark Stone’s lower-body issue is the more critical concern for Vegas — he is the team’s captain, their best two-way forward, and a cornerstone of their penalty kill. Losing him for an extended stretch would shift the series calculus meaningfully. On the Anaheim side, the Dostal question is equally pressing. He is the reason this Ducks team made it to the second round, but the way Game 3 opened — 3 goals surrendered in the first period, hook coming at the 8-shot mark — raises real questions about whether Quenneville has the confidence to hand him the start again in a must-respond game. Radko Gudas, Anaheim’s captain, is also day-to-day and participated in a full morning skate before Game 3. His potential return adds a physical element the Ducks have been missing for 7 games.
What Happened Last Game
Game 3 on May 9 was as lopsided as a second-round playoff game gets. Vegas scored 3 goals in the opening 20 minutes — Shea Theodore 66 seconds in off a Jack Eichel feed, then a McNabb shorthanded goal, then Marner on the power play after Dostal couldn’t control a rebound. By the time Dostal was pulled, the game was effectively over. Marner finished with 3 goals and a point on Vegas’s 6th goal, becoming one of the hottest offensive players in these playoffs. Carter Hart then turned away 30 shots, allowing only 2 consolation goals in the third period when the score was 5-0. The most striking underlying number: Vegas scored on 21.4% of its 28 shots while the Ducks converted just 2 of 33 attempts at 5-on-5. Vegas also won 57% of faceoffs — controlling puck possession zones that determined where the game was played all night.
What Changed
Vegas made 1 lineup adjustment before Game 3, inserting Dylan Coghlan for Kaedan Korczak on the blue line. That change appeared to help tighten their structure. The more significant change heading into Game 4 will be on the Anaheim side — whether Quenneville goes back to Dostal or shifts to Husso. This decision is unknown as of publication and is the single biggest variable in this game. If Gudas returns to the Anaheim blue line, that matters too — he adds physicality and defensive conscience that the Ducks have lacked since losing him in Game 1 of Round 1.
Recent Form in Series
Games 1 and 2 were both 3-1 results — Game 1 to Vegas at home, Game 2 to Anaheim at Vegas. Game 3 broke the tight pattern in a dramatic way, with Vegas winning 6-2 at Honda Center. The road team has now won all 3 games of this series. That is meaningful context for a back-against-the-wall Ducks team trying to square things up at home — but it is also a data point that says Vegas is comfortable playing away from T-Mobile Arena in this series.
Goaltending
Carter Hart has been the more reliable goaltender through 3 games, carrying a series save percentage around .891 with a 2.71 GAA. His Game 3 was his cleanest performance, turning aside 30 shots with the game under control. The concern is that both of Anaheim’s goals came in the third period when Vegas had already won — meaning Hart has faced minimal genuine pressure in this series outside of Game 2 when the Ducks were sharper.
On the Anaheim side, Dostal’s series numbers have deteriorated significantly after the Game 3 hook. He entered the series with a career playoff save percentage around .874 — already below average — and the early pull in Game 3 only puts more pressure on him mentally and physically. Whether he starts Game 4 is genuinely unknown and creates a wide uncertainty range. If Husso gets the nod, he is an unproven option with limited recent action. Both scenarios present risk for Anaheim.
Key Skaters
Mitch Marner is the most dangerous player in this series right now. His hat trick in Game 3 gives him 6 goals in the last 4 games and a level of offensive production that nobody could have fully priced coming into this series. He operates on the top line with Eichel and Barbashev, and his movement in the offensive zone creates lanes that Anaheim has not been able to close. Jack Eichel added an assist and 4 shots on goal in Game 3 — he is the engine that controls pace and puck movement. Shea Theodore contributed a 2-point game and brings offensive firepower from the blue line that supplements the forward group.
For Anaheim, Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry remain the most credible offensive threats. Carlsson was held off the scoresheet in Game 3, while Terry did not factor in the scoring either. Beckett Sennecke and Chris Kreider each scored consolation goals in the third period, but those came against a Vegas team playing without urgency.
Team Performance and Metrics
| Metric | Vegas Golden Knights | Anaheim Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| Game 3 5 on 5 | 4 ES goals on 21 shots | 2 ES goals on 30 shots (third period only) |
| Game 3 shooting pct | 21.4% | 6.1% |
| Special teams | 1-for-3 PP; 1 SHG | 0-for-2 PP |
| Faceoffs | 57% (29 of 51) | 43% (22 of 51) |
| Goaltending | Hart — 30 saves, clean | Dostal pulled; Husso finished — Game 4 starter uncertain |
The expected game script on a neutral read is Vegas controlling the middle of the ice through Eichel and Karlsson on faceoffs, generating the majority of quality chances, and Hart keeping the Ducks off the board until Marner or Theodore find a lane. That script held for 40-plus minutes in Game 3. What changes it: Stone being out removes a key shutdown element; Gudas returning gives Anaheim more structure; and a healthy Dostal could shut the door on a few chances the Ducks have been leaking through the first 3 games.
Odds Vegas Golden Knights vs. Anaheim Ducks
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | VGK -109 | ANA -108 |
| Total | O 6.5 +125 | U 6.5 -150 |
| Puckline | VGK -1.5 +205 | ANA +1.5 -265 |
Key Edges
- Vegas’s qualitative dominance in Game 3 — controlling faceoffs, generating high-danger chances, and forcing a goalie pull — was repeatable, not fluky. If the market prices Game 4 at near-even, that gap between performance and implied probability represents a genuine edge on VGK moneyline.
- Dostal’s psychological state after the Game 3 pull is a real variable. If he starts and shows similar vulnerability to early pressure — something Eichel and Marner will target from puck drop — ANA could fall behind quickly again, making the Ducks moneyline value a trap.
- Gudas’s potential return is more noise than signal from a betting standpoint. He has been out 7 games, has minimal timing, and his physical role takes several games to recalibrate.
Risk Factors
- Mark Stone’s status is unknown. If he is out or significantly limited, Vegas loses their most important defensive forward and a critical penalty-kill piece. This is a genuine reason to lower position size or wait for confirmation.
- Dostal could overperform. Goaltenders sometimes respond to adversity with their best game, and the Ducks are a motivated team facing a 3-1 series deficit if they lose. A sharpened Dostal in a loud Honda Center is a realistic alternate scenario.
- Small playoff sample: 3 games with 2 different home teams winning. The road-team-wins pattern of this series is unusual and could simply reflect matchup dynamics or game-to-game variance rather than a reliable trend.
Prediction and Verdict
- Best Bet: Vegas Golden Knights moneyline
- Score Projection: Vegas 4, Anaheim 2
- Win Probability: Vegas 54% | Anaheim 46%
- Edge: Small to moderate
Vegas is the better team in this series right now, and the gap was as wide as it has been all postseason in Game 3. Marner is playing with elite-level confidence, Eichel is controlling the pace, and Hart has been reliable when it matters. The case for Anaheim comes down entirely to whether Dostal can recapture his Game 2 form, whether the Ducks can replicate the defensive structure from the first 2 games that kept this series tight, and whether losing Stone is a true momentum shift for Vegas. None of those questions have been answered yet heading into Sunday.
The bet on Vegas moneyline makes sense at near-even prices, where the recent performance gap justifies taking the better team even as a road underdog. But this is a 3-out-of-5-confidence play, not a high-conviction spot. Stone’s availability before puck drop should be the final trigger for position sizing — if he plays, lean into the play; if he is out, reduce or pass until the market clarifies.
Final Score Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
