Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction: Can Mets Avoid 13th Straight Loss?

The Minnesota Twins head to Citi Field on Wednesday night looking to build on a dramatic comeback win, while the New York Mets are searching for answers during a prolonged slump. Minnesota rallied late in Tuesday’s game to win 5-3, handing New York its 12th straight loss. That result highlights the current direction of both teams, as the Twins sit around the .500 mark and the Mets have tumbled to the bottom of the NL East. Here, I break down this Twins vs Mets matchup and make my pick for it in the betting markets.

Twins vs Mets Pick

• Pick: Under 8
• Confidence: 3 out of 5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets
• Date & Time: Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 7:10 PM
• Starting Pitchers: Connor Prielipp vs Clay Holmes
• Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Broadcast: MLB.tv

Key Storylines

• The Mets enter on a 12-game losing streak and have not won since early April.
• Minnesota just completed a late comeback victory in the series opener and will try to build on the momentum from that in the second game of this series.
• New York’s bullpen struggles continued on Tuesday, producing a collapse in the ninth inning.
• The Mets’ offense has gone quiet late in games, with limited production after the middle innings.

Pitching Matchup

• Clay Holmes has been excellent with a 1.96 ERA range and solid WHIP of 1.09, and he will try to get the Mets back on track here.
• Connor Prielipp is making his first appearance of the 2026 season in starting this game for the Twins and he will look to prolong the misery of the Mets here.
• Holmes has the edge in control and strikeout ability, giving the Mets a clear advantage on the mound.

Key Players

• Josh Bell leads the Twins with 15 RBI and provides middle-of-the-order power.
• Byron Buxton adds speed and power with 4 home runs to lead Minnesota.
• Francisco Alvarez leads the Mets with 4 home runs and a batting average of .250.
• Bo Bichette contributes run production with 9 RBI, but has been inconsistent.

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Twins are 1-0 against the Mets this season.
• The first game of this series saw 8 total runs scored.
• The Mets have lost 12 straight games.
• The under is 11-10-2 in Mets games this season.
• The Twins are 13-9-1 to the over heading into this game.

Twins vs Mets Model Projection

• Score Projection: Minnesota Twins 4 – New York Mets 3
• Win Probability: Minnesota Twins 52%, New York Mets 48%

On paper, the Mets appear to have the advantage with Clay Holmes on the mound, as he has been one of their most reliable arms early in the season. However, baseball rarely follows a simple script, and current form plays a major role in handicapping this game. New York’s extended losing streak reflects deeper issues, especially in late-game execution and bullpen stability. Even with a strong start from Holmes, there is little confidence that the Mets can protect a lead given recent results. I’m going to take the Twins to hand the Mets a 13th loss in a row.

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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