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March Madness Round 1 Prediction and Previews

Queens Royals vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction: NCAA Tournament First Round

Updated March 20, 2026 • 3 min read

The first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament will feature West Region action when the No. 15 seed Queens University Royals take on the No. 2‑seed Purdue Boilermakers on Friday in St. Louis. Purdue arrives off a Big Ten Conference Tournament title after beating Michigan and boasts national title odds among the strongest in college basketball world. Queens punched its ticket by winning the ASUN Tournament and brings one of the most dynamic scoring offenses outside of major conference play in the country. This Queens vs Purdue clash pits a high‑octane mid‑major offense against a veteran‑led power conference contender and I’ll break it all down for you right here.

Queens vs Purdue Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Queens University Royals @ Purdue Boilermakers
  • Date & Time: Friday, March 20, 2026
  • Venue: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri

Key Storylines

  • Queens University enters the NCAA Tournament as ASUN champions with a potent scoring attack that ranks in the top 25 nationally in points per game.
  • Purdue won the Big Ten Tournament and has momentum from strong performances, including victories over UCLA and Michigan, to secure its title.
  • Purdue’s veteran backcourt and balanced inside‑outside scoring make it one of the most complete teams in the field, with postseason expectations reflected in their relatively short odds to win the tourney.
  • A potential upset bid by Queens will hinge on its ability to sustain scoring efficiency late and limit turnovers against a disciplined defense.

Key Players

Queens University Key Players

  • Nasir Mann – Senior guard leading the Royals in scoring with about 13.4 points per game and contributing strong rebounding figures from the guard spot.
  • Yoav Berman – Sophomore guard who adds around 12.6 points per game and facilitates offense with nearly four assists per outing.

Purdue Key Players

  • Braden Smith – Senior guard and team leader, excels in assists and floor management while creating scoring opportunities for teammates; his playmaking is central to Purdue’s offensive rhythm.
  • Fletcher Loyer – Dangerous scoring option from beyond the arc and consistent offensive contributor capable of stretching defenses.
  • Oscar Cluff – Impact inside scorer and rebounder, offering physicality and finishing around the rim that sets the tone in the paint.
  • Trey Kaufman‑Renn – Veteran forward providing scoring balance and second‑chance opportunities with rebounding prowess.

Stat Comparison

StatisticQueens UniversityPurdue
Points per Game84.981.7
Team Field Goal %48%50%
Rebounds per Game33.835.6
Assists per Game15.919.9

Betting Trends

  • Purdue is just 14-20 against the spread so far this season.
  • Queens enters this matchup with a 14-18-1 record against the spread this season.
  • Purdue is 17-17 in the over/under market this season.
  • The over is 21-12 in games involving Queens this season.

Queens vs Purdue Pick & Model Projection

  • Score Projection: Queens 70 – Purdue 97 ATS PRO
  • Pick: Purdue –24.5 ATS PRO
  • Confidence: 2 out of 5 ATS PRO
  • Win Probability: Queens University 22%, Purdue 78% ATS PRO

Purdue enters this opening round matchup as a clear favorite based on its season‑long performance, conference tournament success, and efficiency metrics reflected in my analytical projections. The Boilermakers’ balanced scoring, veteran leadership, and deeper rotation lend themselves well to controlling this one for 40 minutes and exploiting defensive mismatches against mid‑major opponents. Queens University’s high‑octane offense will be slowed down by a higher quality opponent than they are used to, and Purdue should cover the spread here.

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
Tags: Purdue Boilermakers, Queens University Royals
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