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March Madness Round 1 Prediction and Previews

Cal Baptist Lancers vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction: NCAA Tournament First Round

Updated March 20, 2026 • 3 min read

The first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament will continue on Friday with a matchup between the Cal Baptist Lancers and Kansas Jayhawks in the East Region. This game pits a program making its first-ever tournament appearance against one of college basketball’s most storied teams. Kansas’ track record under coach Bill Self and multiple marquee victories have them installed as a heavy favorite, while Cal Baptist’s rise through the Western Athletic Conference and its automatic bid are what they hope to be stepping stones en route to an upset win in this Cal Baptist vs Kansas contest.

Cal Baptist vs Kansas Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: California Baptist Lancers @ Kansas Jayhawks
  • Date & Time: Friday, March 20, 2026
  • Venue: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA

Key Storylines

  • Kansas enters the tournament with a 23-10 record, locking down a No. 4 seed and extending the program’s remarkable NCAA appearance streak to 36 consecutive years, a testament to its sustained excellence.
  • Cal Baptist punched its first March Madness ticket by capturing the WAC Championship with a dramatic 63-61 win, marking a major milestone after it transitioned from Division II less than a decade ago. They defeated Utah Valley by two points in the WAC title game, benefiting from a missed dunk at the end of regulation from Utah Valley that would have sent the game to overtime.
  • The Jayhawks’ defensive prowess and balanced scoring contrast with Cal Baptist’s reliance on key performers like Dominique Daniels Jr., and it will take an incredible showing from Daniels for the Lancers to launch an upset bid here.

Key Players

Kansas Jayhawks

  • Darryn Peterson – The Jayhawks’ leading scorer at roughly 19.8 points per game, his ability to create offense is central to Kansas controlling tempo and scoring efficiently.
  • Flory Bidunga – A defensive anchor for Kansas, honored as the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and All-Big 12 First Team, his presence disrupts opposing offenses at multiple levels.
  • Melvin Council Jr. – The Big 12 Newcomer of the Year contributes scoring and playmaking, adding depth to the Jayhawks’ offensive options.

California Baptist Lancers

  • Dominique Daniels Jr. – A pivotal scorer for the Lancers who has posted big numbers in key games and was instrumental in Cal Baptist’s tournament-qualifying run. His scoring will be a barometer of CBU’s upset potential.

Stat Comparison

StatisticKansasCalifornia Baptist
Points per Game75.673.0
Team Field Goal %45%43%
Rebounds per Game38.839.9
Assists per Game14.310.3

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

  • This is the first-ever tournament meeting between these programs.
  • Kansas is 20-13 against the spread this season.
  • The under is 22-11 in games involving Kansas this season.
  • Cal Baptist is 19-14 against the spread this season.
  • Cal Baptist has gone under the total in 21 of their 33 games this season.

California Baptist vs Kansas Pick & Model Projection

  • Score Projection: California Baptist 63 – Kansas 81 ATS PRO
  • Pick: Kansas -14.5 ATS PRO
  • Confidence: 3.5 out of 5 ATS PRO
  • Win Probability: California Baptist 22%, Kansas 78% ATS PRO

I am expecting Kansas to win and cover the spread in this NCAA Tournament first-round matchup. The Jayhawks have all of their key pieces on the floor together, which should help them to run away with this contest against a Cal Baptist team that has never experienced NCAA Tournament basketball in program history. The gap in tournament experience for these programs won’t do any favors for the Lancers, who will get sent home early in their first ever trip to March Madness.

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
Tags: Cal Baptist Lancers, Kansas Jayhawks
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