Brighton host Nottingham Forest on Sunday in a Premier League fixture between two teams in the bottom half of the table. Forest are flirting with the relegation zone, though they come into this weekend’s matches in a safe spot for now. They will try to get a key away win over a Brighton team that has some breathing room, but could use some key points to keep it that way. Before kickoff from the Amex, you can find my Brighton vs Nottingham Forest prediction here.
Our Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Pick
Pick: Brighton to win (+110)
Confidence: 3.5 out of 5
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Match Preview
Brighton enter this fixture off a win against Brentford in their last outing, snapping a three-match losing streak across all competitions. The Seagulls had been held scoreless by Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, and Liverpool consecutively before breaking through with a 2-0 victory over the Bees last time out. Brighton enters this match in 14th place in the Premier League with a +2 goal difference that they will try to improve upon here.
Nottingham Forest is in 17th place in the Premier League this season and are just two points clear of the drop zone entering the weekend. Fixture congestion has hurt Forest of late, as they are competing in the Europa League playoff round. That could hurt them again this weekend, as Forest have a Thursday match against Fenerbahce of Turkey at home before playing this match just a few days later.
Interestingly, both of these teams are in the top half of the table in terms of expected goals average for the year. Forest ranks ninth in the league in xG per game, while Brighton sits one spot below them in 10th. But points in the Premier League are not awarded based on math and both of these teams need to be more clinical at actually putting the ball into the goal if they want to climb the table and secure their spot in next year’s Premier League without any doubts.
Betting Insights
- Brighton have won just 1 of their last 7 home matches.
- Forest have 4 away wins and 6 losses in their last 10 road games across all competitions.
- Four of Brighton’s last five games have stayed under 2.5 total goals.
- At least one team has failed to score in three straight Forest matches.
- Danny Welbeck is +140 to score a goal in this match for Brighton, the shortest odds in the anytime goalscorer market.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Neither of these teams have been all that impressive lately, but I do think that Brighton will be able to come away with the win when all is said and done in this matchup. The Seagulls got an impressive win away at Brentford last time out and should build on that against a Forest squad that has scored the second-fewest goals in the Prem with just 25 in 27 matches so far.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Model Projection
Score Projection: Brighton 2 – Nottingham Forest 1
Win Probability: Brighton 55%, Nottingham Forest 23%, Draw 22%
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