Tottenham vs Everton Prediction: Will De Zerbi Save Spurs from the Drop?

Tottenham ML at -110 is our pick. The model puts the probability at 52%, against the 47.6% implied by the current line, giving a 4.4% edge. Spurs need one point to guarantee Premier League survival, while West Ham need to beat Leeds and hope Everton win here.

The motivation gap is enormous. Spurs are fighting for their top-flight existence while Everton, sitting 12th and with nothing riding on the result, travel to a desperate Tottenham Hotspur Stadium knowing they have no incentive either way. The injury list is brutal as it has been all season, but De Zerbi has enough to get a result in a game Spurs cannot afford to lose. Fair price: -108.

Tottenham vs Everton Analysis

• The Sharp Play: Tottenham ML (-110)
• Confidence Level: 3/5

The entire story of this game is motivation. Spurs go into Sunday knowing the only way they get relegated is if they lose here and West Ham beat Leeds. A draw is mathematically enough for survival regardless of what happens at the London Stadium, due to Tottenham’s vastly superior goal difference.

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will be a nervous wreck on Sunday. These fans have spent most of the season watching their club flirt with relegation, a fate they haven’t suffered in 48 years. But Spurs have shown some promise since De Zerbi took over from Igor Tudor, and the Italian only needs one point to avoid such a fate.

The Toffees have been inconsistent all season, winning one and losing three of their last five, and the visit to north London on a final-day Sunday when the home crowd will be deafening is not where a mid-table team typically finds something extra. The reverse fixture at Goodison in October finished 2-0 to Spurs, while the Head to Head is 14-6 in favour of Tottenham in Premier League meetings between these two sides.

The injury list complicates things. Spurs are without Kulusevski, Odobert, Kudus, Solanke, Simons, Romero and Davies, while James Maddison continues to have his minutes managed in his comeback from an ACL tear. Mathys Tel and Kolo Muani will carry the attacking load, with Gallagher tasked with driving from midfield and Van de Ven the platform at the back. It’s a makeshift group but a pointed one. None of these players want to be the ones who let Spurs go down.

Advanced Metrics & Tactical Matchup

The metrics are surprisingly close, which is partly why this line sits at -110 rather than -150 or shorter. Spurs generate marginally more xG and concede marginally more too, which tells the story of a team that has been open and unreliable defensively all season but still capable of producing in attack.

The slight PPDA edge for Spurs reflects De Zerbi’s pressing principles, which he’s maintained even with the depleted squad. Everton’s 1.50 xGA over the last five is reasonable, but they’ve been soft in away games against motivated home sides. They lost 3-1 at Sunderland last time out in a game that felt half-paced. A Spurs side playing in front of a desperate home crowd on the final day will not feel remotely like Sunderland.

Team News & Impact Analysis

The Spurs injury list for this game is staggering. Dominic Solanke (muscle), Christian Romero (knee), Xavi Simons (ACL), Dejan Kulusevski (knee), Wilson Odobert (ACL), Mohammed Kudus (thigh), and Ben Davies (ankle) are all out. Richarlison and Porro picked up knocks against Chelsea but should be able to feature here. Regardless of their league status, Spurs simply must do something about their tendency to purchase talented but unavailable players.

Van de Ven is the defensive anchor and will start. Kinsky will continue in goal. Kolo Muani and Mathys Tel are the attacking options, with Gallagher expected to drive from a central role and Palhinha providing the defensive cover beneath him. The XI De Zerbi puts out will be stretched and patched, but it contains players who understand exactly what’s at stake.

Everton are relatively light on absentees by comparison. Jarrad Branthwaite and Jack Grealish are ruled out, while Idrissa Gana Gueye has a knock. Otherwise Moyes has a fairly full group available. Calvert-Lewin is expected to lead the line with Ndiaye and Lindstrom in support. Michael Kean deputises for Branthwaite alongside Tarkowski, wile Seamus Coleman should feature in some capacity in his final game for the club after 10 years of service. Merlin Röhl has made an impact of late and should start once more in service of Beto.

The Toffees have no particular incentive to set up aggressively, and Moyes will almost certainly name a structured, defensive-leaning side that looks to absorb and hit on the break rather than come out and impose themselves in north London.

Predicted Lineups

Key Betting Stats

• Tottenham enter GW38 on 38 points, two clear of West Ham (36 points) in the relegation zone. A draw at home is enough for survival due to Spurs’ superior goal difference.
• The only relegation scenario for Spurs: lose to Everton AND West Ham beat Leeds by any scoreline. A Tottenham draw eliminates any mathematical route to the drop regardless of what happens elsewhere.
• Tottenham lost 2-1 at Chelsea on Tuesday in GW37, with Enzo Fernandez and Andrey Santos scoring for the Blues before Richarlison pulled one back late. Spurs had won two of their previous three away games (2-1 at Villa, 1-0 at Wolves) during their survival run.
• Everton beat Spurs in neither home game nor away game last season. The reverse fixture in October 2025 finished 2-0 to Tottenham at Goodison. The all-time Premier League H2H stands at Spurs 14, Everton 6, with 12 draws from 32 meetings.
• Everton lost 3-1 at Sunderland in GW37 and have won just one of their last five league games. They sit 12th, safe and directionless, with David Moyes’ future at the club uncertain heading into the final day.
• Tottenham are missing several players through injury for Sunday, with Solanke, Kulusevski, Romero and Xavi Simons among those missing.

Final Betting Model Projection

Spurs ML at -110 is the play, returning a 4.4% model edge. The line feels right for the match on paper but wrong for the context. This is a survival game for one team and a dead rubber for the other, played in a 62,000-seat stadium where the home fans will be creating one of the loudest atmospheres of the English season. That factor alone closes a chunk of the quality gap created by the injury list.

The draw is overpriced at +240 given Spurs’ aggressive approach under De Zerbi, and both sides’ leaky defenses. The Everton ML at +320 has very marginal negative edge and no compelling narrative case beyond David Moyes wanting to save his old club. I’m tipping Spurs to win, and survive by the skin of their teeth.