New England Patriots vs New York Jets Prediction & Best Bet – 12/28/2025

The New England Patriots head into their Week 17 AFC East matchup with the New York Jets on Sunday, holding a 12‑3 record and having clinched a playoff spot. The Patriots are heavily favored going into this matchup at MetLife Stadium and they are trying to keep pace with the Denver Broncos in the race for the top seed in the AFC. Here, I break down this matchup between division rivals and make my Patriots vs Jets prediction before Sunday.

Our Patriots vs Jets Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New England Patriots vs New York Jets
• Date & Time: Sunday, December 28, 1:00 PM
• Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Broadcast: FOX

Key Storylines

• The Patriots are coming off a 28‑24 win over the Baltimore Ravens that clinched their first playoff berth since 2021 and improved their record to 12‑3. New England is still in the mix to grab the top seed in the AFC and the first-round bye that comes with that. But they have to avoid a letdown here against the rival Jets to stay in the hunt.
• The Jets have struggled mightily, sitting at 3‑12, with rookie Brady Cook named the starter for this game after the Jets placed Justin Fields on injured reserve. Cook’s limited experience and turnover issues provide a major concern for New York’s offense. The Jets are tied for the second-worst record in the AFC this season and they will try to finish strong in this game and next week.
• New England’s defense has been more effective at limiting big plays compared to the Jets, who rank near the bottom of the league in total offensive output as well. It is going to take a lot for the Jets to pull off an upset here, but it will start by New York limiting explosive plays from the Patriots for that to happen.

Quarterback Play

Drake Maye has cemented himself as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks this season, earning Pro Bowl recognition after passing for nearly 4,000 yards with 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions while completing over 70% of his passes.

The Jets’ quarterback situation is a mess going into this game. With Justin Fields done for the season, rookie Brady Cook will make his third start. Cook has struggled with turnovers and protection issues, with one touchdown to six interceptions in his starts.

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Patriots won the first meeting between these teams this season by a score of 27-14
• The Jets are 7-7-1 against the spread so far this season.
• New England is 9-5-1 against the spread going into Sunday afternoon.
• Both teams have gone over the total in 9 of their first 15 games.

Patriots vs Jets Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.