Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction & Picks – 12/28/2025

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins will square off on Sunday in a Week 17 matchup between two Florida-based teams. Both teams sit below .500 and are coming off recent losses. The Buccaneers dropped a close game to the Carolina Panthers and must win to keep their NFC South title hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been eliminated from postseason contention and are undergoing a quarterback change, with rookie Quinn Ewers taking snaps last week. Before these teams go at it in Miami, you will find my Buccaneers vs Dolphins prediction right here.

Our Buccaneers vs Dolphins Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins
• Date & Time: Sunday, December 28, 2025, 1:00 p.m.
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
• Broadcast: FOX

Key Storylines

The Buccaneers have struggled down the stretch, losing six of their last seven games and relinquishing a division lead after a loss to the Carolina Panthers. They still control their destiny in the NFC South, but must find consistency over these next two weeks. Tampa Bay’s offense has been middling, and recent performances have seen close games decided late in the fourth quarter. Tampa needs to step up to avoid choking away the division.

On the other sideline, the Dolphins have endured a tumultuous season, culminating in a quarterback change. After a disappointing campaign, Miami’s coaching staff decided to bench veteran Tua Tagovailoa and start rookie Quinn Ewers. The young signal caller has limited game experience and struggled in his first start, throwing two interceptions against the Bengals in a lopsided loss. But Ewers will try to gain more valuable experience in this contest with more success.

Quarterback Play

Baker Mayfield has managed the Buccaneers’ offense with mixed results. While capable of making key throws and leading scoring drives, Tampa Bay’s offense has not been consistent enough. Mayfield’s experience and competence under pressure give Tampa a slight advantage over Miami’s inexperienced starter. If the rookie can limit turnovers and make good decisions, Miami could stay competitive against a struggling opponent.

Betting Trends

• Miami is 7-8 against the spread this season.
• The Bucs are 5-10 against the spread going into Week 17.
• Tampa Bay has gone over the total in 8 of its 15 games this year.
• The Dolphins have gone 8-5-2 in the over/under market this season.

Buccaneers vs Dolphins Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.