The Cincinnati Bearcats (6–1, 4–0 Big 12) will host the Baylor Bears (4–3, 2–2 Big 12) at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday. Cincinnati enters the matchup as a 3.5-point favorite, as they hope to extend their six-game winning streak and stay unbeaten in Big 12 play. Here, I break down whether or not I think they can get another conference win and you can find my Baylor vs Cincinnati prediction below.
Our Baylor vs Cincinnati Pick
- Pick: Cincinnati -3.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baylor Bears vs Cincinnati Bearcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 25, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
- High-Scoring Offenses: Both teams have potent offenses, with Cincinnati averaging 37.9 points per game and Baylor close behind at 36.3. The total has been set at 67.5 points and there is the expectation that there will be a ton of points scored in this Big 12 matchup.
- Quarterback Play: Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby has been efficient, throwing for 1,732 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just one interception. Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson leads the nation in passing yards with 2,376 and 21 touchdowns. But he has also thrown seven interceptions. The quarterback who can air it out the most effectively in this game without turning the ball over will give their team a huge boost.
- Defensive Strength: Cincinnati’s defense has been stingy, allowing only 18.9 points per game. Baylor’s defense has given up 31.4 points per game. The Bearcats have the advantage on that side of the ball, but both offenses are expected to put up points in bunches.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Baylor is just 1-6 against the spread so far this year.
- The Bearcats are 5-2 against the spread going into this game.
- Baylor has gone 5-2 to the over heading into this weekend’s action.
- Cincinnati is also 5-2 in the over/under market for the season.
Baylor vs Cincinnati Model Projection
- Score Projection: Cincinnati 36, Baylor 27
- Win Probability: Cincinnati 64.2%, Baylor 35.8%
Final Thoughts
Cincinnati enters this game as the stronger team, both offensively and defensively. Their balanced attack and solid defense should be enough to cover the spread against a Baylor team that has struggled on the road. Baylor’s high-powered offense, led by Sawyer Robertson can keep the game close. But Cincinnati’s overall strength and home-field advantage make them my pick to cover the 3.5-point spread as a favorite on their home turf on Saturday afternoon.
