The Texas Longhorns (5-2, 2-1 SEC) will face the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3, 0-3 SEC) on Saturday afternoon at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. Texas enters the matchup as a 6.5-point favorite. The Longhorns escaped with a 16-13 overtime victory against Kentucky last week. The Longhorns aim to build momentum as they continue their SEC campaign. Here, I break down this matchup in the SEC and bring you my Texas vs Mississippi State prediction for this contest.
Our Texas vs Mississippi State Pick
- Pick: Mississippi State +7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 25, 2025, 4:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Key Storylines
- Texas’ Offensive Inconsistency: Quarterback Arch Manning has thrown for 1,449 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. However, his performance has been inconsistent, and the Texas offense has struggled to find its rhythm at times. Last week was one of those times, as Texas needed overtime just to score 16 points against Kentucky.
- Mississippi State’s SEC Struggles: The Bulldogs have lost all three of their SEC games this season and are 4-0 outside of conference play. They will aim to end their conference losing streak and prove they can compete at the SEC level by upsetting one of the most storied programs in the history of college football.
Quarterback Play
Texas’ Arch Manning has shown flashes of brilliance but has also faced challenges in leading the Texas offense. He will try to prove himself again in this matchup. Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,525 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Both quarterbacks will need to manage the game effectively and avoid turnovers to give their teams the best chance to win.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Texas: The Longhorns are 2-5 against the spread this season. Five of their seven games have stayed under their totals.
- Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are 6-1 against the spread this season despite being winless in the SEC.
- Head-to-Head: Texas leads the all-time series 3-2, including a 35-14 victory over Mississippi State last season.
Texas vs Mississippi State Model Projection
Score Projection: Texas 27 – Mississippi State 23
Win Probability: Texas 79.7%, Mississippi State 20.3%
Final Thoughts
Texas should be able to get another road win in the SEC this week. But I do think that we are in for a close game between the Longhorns and Bulldogs. Arch Manning will continue to struggle to find sustained offensive success and Mississippi State will cover the number on their home turf on Saturday.
