Ball State and Western Michigan will meet in MAC play on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals are 2-3 on the season and will try to get back to .500 at the expense of a 3-3 Western Michigan team. Here, I analyze this matchup in the MAC and make my Ball State vs Western Michigan prediction.
Our Ball State vs Western Michigan Pick
- Pick: Western Michigan -8.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Ball State Cardinals vs Western Michigan Broncos
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Ball State vs Western Michigan Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan -8.5 |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan -320, Ball State +260 |
| Total | 43.5 |
Key Storylines
- Ball State’s Road Struggles: The Cardinals have lost their last three road games, raising concerns about their ability to perform away from home. To be fair, those losses came to Purdue, Auburn, and UConn. But winning on the road in conference play is no easy task.
- Western Michigan’s Defensive Strength: The Broncos’ defense has allowed just 30 points over their last three games, indicating a significant improvement after opening their season against some prolific offenses.
- Unbeaten MAC Teams: Both Ball State and Western Michigan are unbeaten in conference play thus far. The Cardinals are 1-0 with a win over Ohio under their belt, while Western Michigan has beaten Toledo and UMass. Both teams would love to stay unbeaten in conference play with a win here.
Quarterback Play
Kiael Kelly (Ball State): Kelly barely completed half of his passes in his last game against Ohio. But he didn’t turn the ball over, threw a touchdown pass, and led the Cardinals in rushing in that game. Kelly will attempt to lead his team to a second straight MAC win.
Broc Lowry (Western Michigan): Lowry hasn’t been overly impressive through the air this season. But he also makes a difference on the ground for his team. Lowry leads the Broncos in rushing and has six rushing touchdowns to go with his three passing touchdowns.
Betting Trends
- Western Michigan: The Broncos are 5-1 against the spread in their first six games. Four of their six games have gone under their totals.
- Ball State: Ball State is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games. Two of their five games this season have gone over their totals.
Ball State vs Western Michigan Model Projection
Score Projection: Western Michigan 25 – Ball State 14
Win Probability: Western Michigan 71%, Ball State 29%
Final Thoughts
While both teams have shown flashes of potential this season, Western Michigan’s recent defensive improvements and home-field advantage give them the edge in this matchup. Ball State’s struggles on the road and the Broncos’ ability to control the game on both sides of the ball make Western Michigan the more reliable pick against the spread for me.
