The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners will face off in Game 5 of the ALDS on Friday night. With the series tied 2–2, the winner of this game will head to the ALCS to take on the Toronto Blue Jays. The Tigers roared back in Game 4 to even this series. Detroit has its ace on the hill and Seattle will have to overcome that to win this winner-take-all matchup. Before the first pitch from Seattle, continue reading to get my Tigers vs Mariners Game 5 prediction.
Our Tigers vs Mariners Game 5 Pick
- Pick: Tigers moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners
- Date & Time: Friday, October 10, 2025, 8:08 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (DET) vs George Kirby (SEA)
- Stadium: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Detroit will start Tarik Skubal in Game 5. Skubal has been elite throughout the season and solid in the postseason. He owns a 13–6 record for the year with a 2.21 ERA and a stingy 0.89 WHIP. In the playoffs so far, Skubal has gone 1–0 with a 1.84 ERA over 14.2 innings. He’s proven himself at every turn, but this is the most important start of his career thus far.
Seattle will go with George Kirby, who posted a 10–8 record in 2025 with a 4.21 ERA and 137 strikeouts over 126 innings. He gave up two runs in five innings in Saturday’s loss to Detroit to open this series. Kirby may need to be better than that to avoid losing to Skubal in this contest.
Key Players
- Riley Greene (DET): Greene finally had a breakout performance in Game 4, hitting a home run to help the Tigers create separation.
- Javier Báez (DET): Baez was electric in Game 4, delivering four RBI and a home run in a critical moment.
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA): When Seattle needs a hit, he often delivers. His ability to produce in clutch spots is a difference-maker.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA): Raleigh is the key run producer and power option in Seattle’s lineup and he will look to make the ultimate impact in this game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | Over 0.5 RBI |
| Riley Greene (DET) | Over 0.5 HR |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | Over 0.5 HR |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Seattle is 6-4 against the Tigers so far this season.
- The over/under is 2-2 in this series so far.
- Each of the last two games between Seattle and Detroit have gone over their totals.
Tigers vs Mariners Game 5 Model Projection
Score Projection: Detroit 5 – Seattle 4
Win Probability: Detroit 54% – Seattle 46%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think we will see Tarik Skubal exit this game unless something drastic happens. He is going to pitch at a high level and the question will be whether or not Kirby can hang enough zeroes on the scoreboard to keep up with him. I don’t think Kirby can do that and I will take the Tigers to win behind Skubal to advance to the ALCS.
