Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Game 4 Prediction – 10/10/2025

The Las Vegas Aces will visit the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals on Friday night. Las Vegas has a 3-0 series lead and will look to complete a four-game sweep with a win here against a desperate Phoenix team. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Aces vs Mercury Game 4 prediction for what could be the final game of the 2025 WNBA season.

Our Aces vs Mercury Game 4 Pick

• Pick: Mercury Moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury
• Date & Time: Friday, October 10, 2025, 8:00 pm ET
• Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
• Broadcast: ESPN

Aces vs Mercury Game 4 Odds

Key Storylines

• A’ja Wilson’s dominance: Wilson scored 34 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in Game 3. She hit the game-winner with 0.3 seconds left in that game to give her team a 3-0 lead. Phoenix has repeatedly failed to find an effective countermeasure to slow down Wilson.
• Elimination pressure on Phoenix: The Mercury are in must-win mode for the rest of this series. Veterans like DeWanna Bonner, Kahleah Copper, and Alyssa Thomas must elevate their games if Phoenix wants to keep its title hopes alive.
• Depth and role players: Las Vegas’s bench contributions from Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans have been more consistent than Phoenix’s bench production. That depth has made a huge difference throughout this series.
• Adjustment battle: Phoenix needs to alter how it defends Wilson and limit her touches. But if they haven’t been able to do that yet in this series, they might not be able to here.
• WNBA history: No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven series in the WNBA. At the same time, no team has ever closed out a series while up 3-0. That is because this is the first time there has been a best-of-seven WNBA Finals.

Best Player Props to Watch

Advanced Metrics & Trends

• The Aces are 2-1 against the spread in this series so far.
• Vegas has covered the spread in two straight games heading into Game 4.
• The over is 3-0 in this series through the first three games.

Aces vs Mercury Game 4 Model Projection

Score Projection: Las Vegas 82 – Phoenix 85

Win Probability: Las Vegas 40%, Phoenix 60%

Final Thoughts

The Aces have all of the momentum in this series heading into Game 4. They also have the best player on the planet in women’s basketball right now, as A’ja Wilson is making a compelling case to be the GOAT once her career is done. But I think the Phoenix Mercury will find a way to grab a win in this series to avoid being swept. This series will go back to Las Vegas, where the Aces will likely finish the job in Game 5, as the Mercury will win as slight underdogs on Friday night.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.