The Detroit Tigers will host the Seattle Mariners in Game 4 of their American League Division Series on Wednesday night. The Mariners lead the series 2–1 following an 8–4 win in Game 3, and now have a chance to clinch their first trip to the ALCS since 2001. Detroit must avoid elimination at home to force a deciding Game 5 in Seattle. Before this huge matchup from Comerica Park, continue reading to get my Mariners vs Tigers Game 4 prediction.
Our Mariners vs Tigers Game 4 Pick
- Pick: Detroit Tigers ML
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 8, 2025, 3:08 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Casey Mize (DET) vs Bryce Miller (SEA)
- Stadium: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Detroit turns to Casey Mize, who enters with a 14–6 record and a 3.87 ERA. He is trusted in a must-win spot, though his second half has been less sharp than his first. Mize has pitched three innings in the postseason so far and has a 3.00 ERA in the playoffs. Seattle will give the start to Bryce Miller, whose regular season was more uneven than that of Mize. He went 4–6 with a 5.68 ERA. This will be Miller’s first postseason start.
Key Players
- Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford, and Eugenio Suárez: All three players homered in Game 3 as Seattle’s offense erupted. Raleigh’s two-run blast in the ninth inning helped seal the win.
- Josh Naylor: Back in the Seattle lineup in Game 3 after missing earlier games. His lefty bat could stand out against Mize.
- Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson: These are Detroit’s power threats. They must deliver against Seattle’s bullpen to keep the Tigers alive.
Recent team streaks
Seattle has won two games in a row going into Game 4. A third straight win for them would move them into the next round. Detroit has dropped two straight games after winning the opening game of this best-of-five series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Josh Naylor | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
| Spencer Torkelson | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Seattle has gone 6-3 against Detroit this year between the regular season and playoffs.
- Two of the first three games in this series have gone under their respective totals.
- Detroit is 46-36 at home this year between the regular season and playoffs.
- Seattle is 40-42 on the road for the year.
Mariners vs Tigers Game 4 Model Projection
Score Projection: Tigers 5 – Mariners 4
Win Probability: Tigers 52%, Mariners 48%
Final Thoughts
I think we are going to see a much closer game in Game 4 than we did in Game 3. The Tigers have the starting pitching edge going into this matchup, though they have already lost with Tarik Skubal on the mound in this series, so who knows how much that will matter. I will take the Tigers at home to force a Game 5 in this series back in Seattle, with the expectation of some regression from Seattle’s big bats.
