The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will face off in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Saturday afternoon. These NL Central teams both won over 90 games in the regular season. But only one of them can win this best-of-five series and represent their division in the NLCS. Before the first pitch from Milwaukee on Saturday, continue reading to get my Cubs vs Brewers Game 1 prediction.
Our Cubs vs Brewers Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Brewers Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2:08 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Cubs – Matthew Boyd (14–8, 3.21 ERA)
- Brewers – Freddy Peralta (17–6, 2.70 ERA)
- Stadium: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
- Broadcast: TBS (also on HBO Max)
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
The Brewers will lean on ace Freddy Peralta to open this series. Peralta leads the National League in wins and has established himself as a reliable pitcher throughout the year. He logged 204 strikeouts this season and has held opponents to a 2.70 ERA. He ranks in the top-10 in MLB in both of those categories and will try to use that to shut down the Cubs here.
The Cubs have opted to start Matthew Boyd in this series opener. Boyd pitched well in his first start of the postseason, giving up one earned run in 4.1 innings of work against the San Diego Padres. The edge in this pitching matchup goes to Peralta, but Boyd has proven that he can certainly hold his own against elite competition.
Recent Team Streaks
Chicago enters off a hard-fought Wild Card series win over San Diego. The Cubs won that series 2–1, taking Games 1 and 3 to advance to the NLDS. Boyd provided a solid start in Game 1 and the Cubs’ bullpen threw 4.1 innings of perfect relief in the decider. Milwaukee enjoyed a bye into the NLDS and enters the series fully rested, coming off a regular season in which they posted an MLB-best 97–65 record.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
| Seiya Suzuki | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
| Michael Busch | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Cubs won the regular-season series over the Brewers 7-6.
- Chicago won three of the final five games between these teams in their five-game series in mid-August.
- Home teams went 7-6 in games played between these teams this year.
- The Cubs went 42-39 on the road this season.
- Milwaukee is 52-29 at home for the season going into this series opener.
Cubs vs Brewers Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Milwaukee 4 – Chicago 2
Win Probability: Milwaukee 65%, Chicago 35%
Final Thoughts
I am expecting a low-scoring series opener between these teams that are very familiar with one another. Both starting pitchers in this game are capable of throwing gems. But I give a slight edge to Peralta and the Brewers in this matchup. They are at home and well-rested, which should be a perfect recipe to take a 1-0 series lead on Saturday afternoon.
