New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 9/28/2025

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins will play in the final game of their regular seasons on Sunday afternoon at loanDepot Park. The Mets find themselves with everything on the line in this game. They need a win and a loss by the Cincinnati Reds to make it to the postseason. Miami is just looking to finish its season on a high note at home. Before the action begins from South Florida, continue reading to get my Mets vs Marlins prediction for today.

Our Mets vs Marlins Pick

• Pick: Marlins Moneyline
• Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
• Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 3:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea (Mets) vs Edward Cabrera (Marlins)
• Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• Broadcast: FDSFL and SNY

Key Storylines

Pitching matchup

This is a less-than-ideal starter pairing for a high-stakes game. Sean Manaea has posted a 5.80 ERA this season and enters with a record of 2–4. The expectation is that New York will lean heavily on its bullpen if Manaea cannot go deep. Miami’s Edward Cabrera is 7–7 with a 3.66 ERA going into this start. He gives the Marlins a more stable option on the hill to begin this game. Cabrera will also have no pressure on him, while Manaea is under tremendous pressure to perform.

Recent team streaks

The Mets come in on a high after a dominating 5–0 win in Game 161, preserving their playoff hopes. Their pitching staff executed nearly flawlessly and their bats came through when needed. They have won two of their last three games heading into Game 162. The Marlins have lost three of their last four games and will try to play spoiler for their division rivals today.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The season series between the Mets and Marlins is tied 6-6 coming into today’s game.
• The winner of this game will win the season series between these two teams.
• New York is 34-46 on the road for the season.
• The Marlins are 37-43 at home on the year.

Mets vs Marlins Model Projection

Score Projection: Marlins 5 – Mets 3

Win Probability: Marlins 58%, Mets 42%

Final Thoughts

The Mets need to win this game to have a chance to make it to the postseason. But I don’t think that the Mets are a good bet here just because they need to win the game. Manaea is not the pitcher the Mets want on the mound for a game this big. Cabrera should outperform him on the bump in this contest and the Marlins have a very realistic shot at winning today and ending the Mets’ playoff hopes once and for all in 2025.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.