Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Game 4 Prediction – 9/28/2025

The Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever will play in Game 4 of their semifinal playoff series on Sunday afternoon. The Aces took a 2-1 lead in the series with a win on the road in Game 3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Las Vegas will try to close the series out without having to go back home for Game 5, while Indiana will try to force a deciding game. Before tip-off from Indianapolis, continue reading to get my Aces vs Fever Game 4 prediction.

Our Aces vs Fever Game 4 Pick

• Pick: Aces –4.5
• Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever
• Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 3:00 PM ET
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Broadcast: ABC

Aces vs Fever Game 4 Odds

Key Storylines

The Aces enter Game 4 with all of the momentum in this series. In Game 3, Las Vegas broke open a close contest in the fourth quarter, shooting 50.8% overall and getting contributions from Jackie Young (25 points), NaLyssa Smith (16), and Chelsea Gray (15) in support of A’ja Wilson. Wilson struggled by her standards with 13 points, eight rebounds, and four assists.

Indiana cooled off badly in the fourth period, failing to score for long stretches and missing 10 straight field goals in the fourth before finally breaking through with a Lexie Hull bucket. That loss puts them in a must-win position here in Game 4.

Injuries and depth concerns continue to loom large for Indiana. The Fever are shorthanded, missing core contributors like Caitlin Clark (groin), Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, and Sydney Colson. Indiana’s leading scorer, Kelsey Mitchell, has carried much of the offensive burden but that might not be enough to keep Indiana alive for a deciding Game 5.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

These teams are 3-3 against each other this season. The Fever won the regular-season series 2-1 over the Aces. Las Vegas has returned the favor with a 2-1 advantage in this best-of-five playoff series. The Aces are 2-1 against the spread in this series, winning and covering the number as a favorite in Games 2 and 3 after being upset at home in Game 1.

Best Player Props to Watch

Aces vs Fever Game 4 Model Projection

Score Projection: Las Vegas 85 – Indiana 77
Win Probability: Las Vegas 62%, Indiana 38%

Final Thoughts

I think that this game will follow a similar script to what we saw in Game 3. The Fever will fight with everything they have and keep up with the Aces for the first three quarters. From there, the championship pedigree and depth of the Aces will make the difference. I expect the Aces to win and cover the spread on the road in Game 4, punching their ticket back to the WNBA Finals where they will await the winner of the series between the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.