The Las Vegas Aces and Dallas Wings will face off in the WNBA on Thursday night. Dallas heads to Las Vegas looking to complete a season sweep after already beating the Aces twice in 2026. The Wings won 95-87 on May 28 and followed that up with a stunning 96-66 victory on June 15. While Las Vegas remains one of the league’s most talented teams behind A’ja Wilson, the Wings have consistently created matchup problems for the defending champions.
Dallas enters this game with confidence after proving it can slow Wilson while also generating balanced offense from Arike Ogunbowale, Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, and Jessica Shepard. The Aces are playing at home, where they are typically much stronger, and that makes this their best opportunity to avoid a regular-season sweep.
Our Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction
- Pick: Dallas Wings +5.5
- Confidence: 3.5 out of 5
Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Model Projection
- Score Projection: Dallas Wings 89 – Las Vegas Aces 87
- Win Probability: Dallas Wings 54%, Las Vegas Aces 46%
The market is still giving significant respect to Las Vegas, which is understandable considering the presence of Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Jewell Loyd. However, the results on the court have favored Dallas. The Wings have won both meetings this season and have done so in convincing fashion.
Jessica Shepard has been one of the key reasons for Dallas’ success in the matchup. She is averaging 14.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 5.6 assists this season while providing excellent interior play. Ogunbowale remains a primary scoring threat, while Bueckers and Fudd have added another level of perimeter efficiency that was missing from previous Wings teams.
The biggest concern for Dallas is a defense that has slipped recently, allowing nearly 98 points per game across its last three contests. Still, the Wings have already shown they possess the personnel needed to limit Wilson’s impact. Until Las Vegas proves it can solve the Dallas matchup, taking the points with the Wings offers value.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Wings @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: June 25, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Dallas Wings +5.5 (-115)
- Leg 2: Over 177.5 Total Points (-105)
- Leg 3: A’ja Wilson 25+ Points (-150)
Parlay Odds: +405
The first leg follows the primary handicap. Dallas has already beaten Las Vegas twice this season and has demonstrated that it can stay within this number even on a night when the Aces play better than they did in the most recent meeting.
The total looks attractive because both teams possess elite offensive talent. Dallas has added significant firepower through Bueckers and Fudd, while Las Vegas still has multiple high-level scorers. A competitive game should create enough possessions for both teams to threaten the over.
Wilson remains the focal point of the Aces offense. Even in games where Dallas has limited her efficiency, she still commands a massive workload and has a strong chance to reach the 20-point mark at home.
Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Prop Bet
Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 Rebounds
Shepard has been outstanding in this matchup throughout the season. Her activity on the glass has been a major factor in Dallas winning both meetings. With Las Vegas expected to emphasize attacking the paint through Wilson, there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities available. This prop avoids overlap with the parlay while still taking advantage of one of the strongest matchup trends from the season series.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Dallas leads the 2026 season series 2-0.
- Dallas defeated Las Vegas 95-87 on May 28.
- Dallas defeated Las Vegas 96-66 on June 15.
- The Aces are 8-9 against the spread so far this season.
- The Wings enter this game with a 9-8 record against the spread on the year.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Dallas Wings | Las Vegas Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | 111.0 | 111.4 |
| Defensive Rating | 105.1 | 107.2 |
| Net Rating | +5.9 | +4.2 |
| Pace | 96.07 | 96.07 |
| Effective FG % | 52.1% | 54.5% |
| Rebound % | 50.7% | 51.2% |
Thursday’s game is one of the most intriguing matchups on the WNBA schedule. Las Vegas will be eager to respond after two disappointing losses to Dallas, but the Wings have shown repeatedly that they possess the size, depth, and perimeter scoring needed to challenge the defending champions.
The Aces are still capable of winning any game on their home floor, yet the evidence from the first two meetings cannot be ignored. Dallas has won both contests while holding Wilson below her usual standards and receiving major contributions from Shepard, Ogunbowale, Bueckers, and Fudd.
Expect a much tighter game than the 30-point blowout from June 15. Even so, the Wings have earned the benefit of the doubt in this matchup. Taking the points with Dallas is my preferred betting angle, and an outright upset would not be surprising.
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