The WNBA regular season opens Friday night with a familiar Eastern Conference pairing as the Connecticut Sun travel to Brooklyn to face the New York Liberty. New York enters the season as one of the favorites to win the WNBA title after adding Satou Sabally to a roster that already featured Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones. Connecticut enters a rebuilding year with several roster changes, though the addition of Brittney Griner gives the Sun a veteran interior presence capable of keeping them competitive. Here, I break down this matchup and make my Sun vs Liberty prediction for opening night in the W.
Sun vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: Sun +13.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: Friday, May 8, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
- Broadcast: ION
Key Storylines
New York enters the season carrying championship expectations again after an aggressive offseason. The Liberty retained most of their core while adding Sabally, giving them another versatile scorer who can stretch defenses and create mismatches. Even with Ionescu sidelined with an ankle injury, New York still has one of the strongest frontcourts in the league with Stewart and Jones leading the way. However, Sabally is questionable for this game due to illness, which could be a concern.
While the roster for the Liberty is loaded, there will be questions about their coaching situation. Sandy Brondello is no longer in charge in New York, as she will be leading the Toronto Tempo in their inaugural season. Instead, it is Chris DeMarco at the helm, who is known for his time as an assistant with the Golden State Warriors. It remains to be seen how that move will work out for New York.
Connecticut is entering a very different phase as they begin their final season as the Sun before ditching the Northeast for Houston. The Sun lost several veteran contributors from previous playoff runs and are leaning heavily on Griner to stabilize their offense and protect the paint. The Sun have promising younger contributors like Aneesah Morrow and Saniya Rivers, but turnovers and inconsistent perimeter shooting remain concerns entering opening night.
Another interesting storyline will be how much of Hailey Van Lith we see for the Sun. Van Lith was highly touted coming out of college, where she had success at Louisville, LSU, and TCU. But she was waived before the start of this season by the Chicago Sky and has been picked up by the Sun, where she will try to get her pro career moving in the right direction.
Key Players
New York Liberty
- Breanna Stewart remains the centerpiece of the Liberty offense. Stewart averaged over 20 points per game last season while contributing elite defense and rebounding. Her ability to score at all three levels makes her one of the toughest covers in the league.
- Jonquel Jones gives New York a major edge inside. Jones, a former member of the Sun, averaged a double-double last season and remains one of the league’s best rebounders. If Connecticut struggles to contain her in the paint, this game could become lopsided quickly.
- Satou Sabally adds another scoring dimension to the Liberty lineup. Her versatility allows New York to play bigger or smaller lineups without sacrificing offense. If she plays in spite of illness, the Liberty would be much better off.
Connecticut Sun
- Brittney Griner immediately becomes Connecticut’s most important player. She scored 16 points in the preseason loss to New York and gives the Sun a reliable scoring option around the basket. She has to stay out of foul trouble to guard Jones.
- Aneesah Morrow showed promise during preseason action with a team-high 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Connecticut will need her energy against New York’s deep frontcourt.
- Kennedy Burke provides needed perimeter shooting for the Sun. She has also spent much of her WNBA career with the Liberty and knows their players, which could help the Sun in a contest that is expected to be lopsided in Brooklyn.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- New York defeated Connecticut 79-67 in preseason play earlier this month.
- New York went 16-29-2 against the spread last season.
- Connecticut was 23-21 against the spread last year despite their dismal win/loss record.
Sun vs Liberty Model Projection
- Score Projection: Connecticut Sun 78 – New York Liberty 89
- Win Probability: Connecticut Sun 18%, New York Liberty 82%
Even without Ionescu, New York has a major talent edge entering this opener. But there could be some growing pains for New York under new leadership against a Sun team that is young and hungry to prove itself for the most part. I expect the Liberty to win this game, but for the Sun to cover the spread, as it will take the Liberty some time to hit its stride in full.
More WNBA Betting Resources
