Group D Overview
In-Depth Group D Betting Guide
2026 FIFA World Cup
Group D
Updated after Matchday 2 · June 12 to 25, 2026 · Los Angeles · Vancouver · Seattle · Santa Clara
Teams
ATS.io expert verdicts
| Market | Top pick | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Group winner | United States | Settled. The USA followed the 4-1 Paraguay win with a 2-0 victory over Australia and have clinched first place before facing eliminated Turkiye. |
| 2nd-place race | Australia draw or win | Australia sit ahead of Paraguay on goal difference and only need a draw in Santa Clara to finish second. Paraguay must win to jump them. |
| Match to watch | PAR vs AUS | This is now the live Group D game. Australia can manage risk, while Paraguay have to attack without suspended Miguel Almiron. |
| Team-news edge | USA rotation | Pochettino is expected to protect players on yellow cards against Turkiye, including Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, Chris Richards and Folarin Balogun. |
The sharp edge
Final-day picture
| Team | Status | Path from here | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Group winner | Qualified and locked into first place. Turkiye is a rotation and momentum game. | |
| Australia | Controls 2nd | Draw or win against Paraguay and the Socceroos finish second. A narrow loss could still leave a wildcard route. | |
| Paraguay | Must win for 2nd | A win takes Paraguay to six points and second place. A draw likely means a third-place wildcard wait. | |
| Turkiye | Eliminated | Can only play spoiler against the USA after back-to-back defeats to Australia and Paraguay. |
Green = automatic qualification path. Amber = third-place wildcard route possible. Grey = eliminated.
Group analysis
Group D no longer looks like the pre-tournament toss-up it once was. The United States have taken six points from six, beaten Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0, and secured top spot before the final round. Pochettino can now manage minutes, protect players on yellow cards and decide how much risk to take with Christian Pulisic after his calf issue.
The second-place race is much more interesting. Australia opened with a 2-0 upset of Turkiye and then lost 2-0 to the USA, leaving Tony Popovic’s side on three points and level with Paraguay. Their advantage is goal difference. That means a draw in Santa Clara is enough to finish second, while a win would confirm a strong recovery from the USA defeat.
Paraguay kept themselves alive with a gritty 1-0 win over Turkiye, scored through Matias Galarza after just 65 seconds. The downside is the Miguel Almiron red card, which removes their most recognizable attacking player from the Australia game. Gustavo Alfaro’s team have to win to take second place, so their usual defensive caution has to be balanced against the need to chase the match.
Turkiye are the major disappointment of the group. A 2-0 defeat to Australia and a 1-0 loss to 10-man Paraguay have knocked out a side that entered with Guler, Yildiz and Calhanoglu but has produced no goals through two games. The USA match is about pride, but the group has already moved on without them.
Matchday 1 results
Matchday 2 results
Matchday 3 (simultaneous kickoffs)
Odds via DraftKings, ESPN and Oddschecker. Lines subject to change.
Current standings
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Turkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Best bets
Group D betting analysis
The group-winner market is closed. USA have won Group D after six points from their first two matches, and their final game against Turkiye is now a squad-management spot. The only betting question there is how much rotation matters against an eliminated opponent that has not scored in the tournament.
The sharper game is Paraguay vs Australia. Australia have the standings advantage, but the market still gives Paraguay a narrow edge. That makes sense if you rate Paraguay’s defensive structure and the urgency of needing a win, but the absence of Almiron is a real attacking downgrade. Australia can defend in a back five, play for set pieces and counters, and accept long spells without possession.
For live betting, the first goal is everything. If Paraguay score first, Australia have to abandon their preferred low-risk state. If Australia score first, Paraguay must chase without their best creator. If it is level after 60 minutes, the draw price becomes the cleanest read because it suits Australia and may still keep Paraguay alive as a third-place side.
Player props
Odds correct at time of writing via DraftKings, ESPN and Oddschecker. Lines subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
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