Matchday 2 | Group K | June 23, 2026 | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara | 10 PM ET
Colombia and DR Congo meet in Guadalajara on June 23 with Group K suddenly looking far more awkward than Portugal expected.
Colombia opened with a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, while DR Congo earned a deserved 1-1 draw against Portugal in one of the better defensive performances of Matchday 1. That sets up a high-stakes match between two sides harboring ambitions of winning Group K. Luis Diaz and Colombia can take a major step toward the knockout stage with another win, but DR Congo have already shown they are not just here to defend and hope.
Colombia vs DR Congo Pick
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals -151
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Colombia vs DR Congo Match Preview
Colombia are rightly favored, but the current moneyline is not the best betting route. The market has Colombia around -186, with DR Congo around +544. That is a big respect price on Colombia, and while they are the better team, the model sits closer to 58% than the implied market number.
The stronger angle is the total. Colombia generated 1.61 xG and 61% possession in their 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, but that scoreline had some late padding. Daniel Munoz opened the scoring, Luis Diaz restored the lead after Uzbekistan equalized, and Jaminton Campaz sealed it in stoppage time. Colombia were efficient rather than explosive.
DR Congo’s draw with Portugal was not a fluke. They kept Portugal to 0.65 xG from 7 shots despite spending long spells without the ball, and they created 0.87 xG themselves. Yoane Wissa’s equalizer came from a well-worked set-piece situation, but the broader point is that Sebastien Desabre’s side are organized, physical, and comfortable defending in a compact shape.
That makes this a different test for Colombia. Luis Diaz is the clear matchup problem, especially after scoring and assisting in the opener, but DR Congo’s 5-3-2 is built to deny easy central access and break through Wissa, Cedric Bakambu, and the wing-backs. Nestor Lorenzo has already warned that Colombia need calm heads against those transitions, and that should produce a more controlled match than the 3-1 opener suggests.
Betting Insights
- Colombia moneyline: Colombia are the lean, but around -186 is not cheap enough when the model has them closer to 58% to win.
- Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals at around -151 is the better betting angle. DR Congo have already shown they can slow down an elite opponent, while Colombia should not need to chase chaos.
- SGP route: Colombia to win + Under 3.5 Goals is a sensible alternative for bettors who want to back the favorite while respecting DR Congo’s defensive structure.
- Correct score lean: Colombia 2-0 fits the matchup if Diaz creates the breakthrough and Colombia manage the game from there.
The risk to the under is game state. If DR Congo score first, Colombia have the quality to turn this into a more open second half. But if Colombia get in front, Lorenzo’s side should be able to control territory, avoid cheap turnovers, and keep the match inside a 1-0 or 2-0 lane.
Player Props
- Luis Diaz Goal or Assist: Diaz was Colombia’s best attacker against Uzbekistan, scoring once and creating another. If Colombia break through, he is the most likely player to be directly involved.
- Colombia Clean Sheet: This fits the 2-0 projection. DR Congo are dangerous on counters and set pieces, but they are unlikely to build long spells of pressure if Colombia stay disciplined.
- Yoane Wissa Anytime Scorer: This is the small-stake DR Congo angle. Wissa scored against Portugal and remains the most likely player to punish Colombia if they leave space in transition.
- Under 3.5 Goals: This is a lower-risk version of the main total read. It can be useful in SGPs, especially with Colombia to win or Diaz involvement.
Same Game Parlay
Clean build: Colombia to win + Under 3.5 Goals. This follows the most likely Colombia-positive script: they control the match, find enough quality through Diaz and their wide runners, but do not turn it into a shootout.
Aggressive build: Colombia to win + Diaz goal or assist + Under 3.5 Goals. This adds the player most likely to shape Colombia’s attack without needing a high-scoring game. It fits a 1-0 or 2-0 Colombia win.
Predicted Lineups
Colombia projected XI (4-2-3-1): Vargas; Munoz, Mina, Sanchez, Mojica; Uribe, Lerma; Arias, James Rodriguez, Diaz; Luis Suarez
DR Congo projected XI (5-3-2): Mpasi; Wan-Bissaka, Tuanzebe, Mbemba, Masuaku, Kayembe; Sadiki, Moutoussamy, Bakambu; Wissa, Elia
Lineups are projected and subject to late changes. Colombia have no major injury concerns, while DR Congo are expected to keep the compact shape that frustrated Portugal.
Colombia vs DR Congo Model Projection
Score Projection: Colombia 2 – DR Congo 0
Win Probability: Colombia 58%, DR Congo 20%, Draw 22%
Colombia should have more of the ball and the stronger individual attackers, but DR Congo are not a soft underdog. They handled Portugal’s sterile possession well, defended their box with discipline, and have enough pace to make Colombia think twice before throwing numbers forward.
The pick is Under 2.5 Goals at -151. Colombia remain the likely winner, but the moneyline is slightly too short against the model. The total does a better job of capturing the matchup: Colombia control, DR Congo compete, and the favorite wins without the game becoming stretched for long periods.
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