Friday night’s FA Cup fifth round tie at Molineux just took on extra significance. Just 3 days ago, Wolves stunned Liverpool 2-1 in the Premier League, and now welcome the same opponents back to the West Midlands for a place in the FA Cup quarter-finals. Lightning rarely strikes twice, but Wolves have genuine belief right now and Liverpool arrive with questions hanging over them. This is a must-watch match and there is real betting value on the board tonight.
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Our Wolves vs Liverpool Pick
Liverpool Win (-196)
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Wolves vs Liverpool Match Preview
Liverpool’s midweek defeat was painful and statistically hard to explain. The Reds dominated possession, registered 19 shots to Wolves’ 4, and produced an xG of 1.89 compared to Wolves’ 0.44. Andre’s 94th minute deflected winner was cruel on the Reds, but punished a lethargic performance.
Arne Slot’s job security is reportedly under scrutiny amid fan frustration, and the FA Cup now represents the most realistic route to silverware this season. Expect a response tonight. Salah, who has scored in 9 of 9 FA Cup starts for Liverpool, will be central to that. Wirtz is back in contention after missing 3 games through injury, which is a significant boost. The main absentees remain Isak, Endo, Bradley, and Leoni, all long-term casualties who will not feature.
Wolves sit bottom of the Premier League with just 3 wins in 30 league games this season. The midweek result was extraordinary but does not change the overall picture of a side that has failed to score in 5 of their last 8 league games. Their goals have come in unlikely bursts. They scored twice against Arsenal in a draw, twice against Aston Villa in a win, and twice against Liverpool on Tuesday. In each of those games, Wolves also conceded.
Their xG numbers are consistently low, meaning they are punching well above their weight in front of goal right now. Leon Chiwome is the only confirmed absentee. Sam Johnstone is expected to start in goal, having featured in both previous FA Cup rounds. Bellegarde, Mane, and the physical presence of Arokodare, an impactful substitute on Tuesday night, are expected to lead the charge.
Head to head in this fixture strongly favors Liverpool. Tuesday’s defeat was only their 2nd loss in their last 17 meetings with Wolves across all competitions. Liverpool have won 14 of those 17 games. In the FA Cup specifically, Liverpool won the last meeting at Molineux in the third round in 2023 courtesy of a Harvey Elliott winner.
Betting Insights
- Wolves Win: +500
- Draw: +350
- Liverpool Win: -196
- Over 2.5 Goals: -115
- Under 2.5 Goals: -110
- Both Teams to Score Yes: -130
Liverpool at -196 is a fair price given the statistical dominance they showed on Tuesday and their long-term superiority in this fixture. The xG gap between these sides was enormous just 3 days ago, and the Reds should be motivated to take advantage of an opportunity for immediate revenge.
Both Teams to Score at -130 also has strong appeal. Wolves have scored in each of their last 3 home games, and Liverpool’s defensive vulnerabilities have been well documented all season. 5 of Wolves’ last 6 matches have been level at half-time, so do not expect this to be over early. Liverpool have scored 8 of their last 12 goals in the second half, and the pattern points to a tight first half followed by Liverpool eventually finding a way through.
Wolves vs Liverpool Prediction
The stats from Tuesday tell you everything you need to know. A repeat of that level of dominance from the Reds, with slightly better finishing and a more energetic performance, should see them over the line. Wolves will give it everything and the atmosphere at Molineux will be electric, but backing the same side to pull off the same trick twice in 72 hours against opponents who are this motivated is a big ask. Liverpool to win, with both teams getting on the scoresheet.
Wolves vs Liverpool Model Projection
- Score Projection: Wolves 1 – Liverpool 2
- Win Probability: Liverpool 67%, Draw 19%, Wolves 14%
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