Manchester City and Liverpool have already met twice in the Premier League this season, with City winning both, including a 3-0 win at the Etihad in November and a 2-1 comeback at Anfield in February. Now they meet for a third time with a Wembley semi-final spot on the line.
City arrive fresh off their Carabao Cup final win over Arsenal, while Liverpool limp in with a depleted squad and a league campaign that has largely fallen apart. The goals market is the sharpest angle here, and Over 2.5 goals stands out as the best bet on the board.
Quick take: City’s home dominance, a rested Haaland, and Liverpool’s injury-hit defense all point to a high-scoring home win at the Etihad.
| Match | Manchester City vs Liverpool |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday April 4th 2026 |
| Best Bet | Over 2.5 Goals (-140) |
| Confidence | 4/5 |
| Projected Score | Manchester City 3 – Liverpool 1 |
| Win Probability | Manchester City 57%, Liverpool 23%, Draw 20% |
Manchester City vs Liverpool Prediction and Pick
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (-140)
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Every meeting between these sides this season has produced goals freely, and with Liverpool missing key defensive personnel, the conditions strongly favor another open game.
Manchester City vs Liverpool Match Preview
City head into this quarter-final with confidence. After beating Arsenal 2-0 in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley in March, Pep Guardiola’s side has a winning feeling about them again. In their last 10 home matches they have won 7, drawn 2, and lost 1, and they have scored in 9 of their last 10 games across all competitions.
Erling Haaland was rested by Norway during the international break, meaning he arrives at this game fresher than he has been in months. Note also that Guardiola will be serving a touchline ban, with assistant Pep Lijnders taking charge against his former club.
Liverpool‘s season has quietly fallen apart. The Reds have suffered 10 Premier League defeats in their title defense and have lost 3 of their last 4 away games across all competitions.
Their injury list is long. Goalkeeper Alisson Becker is out with a hamstring problem, Alexander Isak remains in recovery from a broken leg, and Federico Chiesa, Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, and Wataru Endo are all unavailable.
Mohamed Salah is expected to return from a groin issue and start, which adds some attacking threat, but the defensive cover behind him is thin. Liverpool have conceded 8 Premier League goals in the 90th minute or later this season, the most in any single campaign since 2010-11.
Key Stats
- City won both Premier League meetings this season: 3-0 at the Etihad in November, 2-1 at Anfield in February, with 6 total goals across the 2 games.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 5 of the last 7 matches involving Liverpool across all competitions.
- 4 of City’s last 5 home games have featured over 2.5 goals.
- City have scored in 9 of their last 10 games and have not failed to score in an FA Cup match across 18 consecutive appearances.
- Liverpool have conceded 8 Premier League goals in the 90th minute or later this season, a club record since 2010-11.
- Liverpool have lost 3 of their last 4 away fixtures across all competitions.
- Haaland was rested by Norway during the international break and is expected to start fully fresh.
- Salah was rested by Egypt during the international break and should recover from a groin injury in time to start.
Betting Insights
- Manchester City Moneyline: -107 / Implied probability: 52%
- Liverpool Moneyline: +330 / Implied probability: 23%
- Draw: +305 / Implied probability: 25%
- Over 2.5 Goals: -140 / Implied probability: 58%
- Projected probability of Over 2.5 Goals: 68%
- Edge: approximately 10%
The market is pricing Over 2.5 goals at a 58% implied probability. Given Liverpool’s form and defensive absences, City’s consistent goal output at home, and the attacking intent both sides will bring to a knockout tie, the true probability sits closer to 68%. Both teams have reason to push forward. Liverpool must win to stay in the competition. City’s attack has been in strong form. That combination, set against a threadbare Liverpool backline, makes the goals line the sharpest value play on the board.
Player Props
- Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer (+100)
- Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer (+225)
- Antoine Semenyo Over 1.5 Shots on Target (+180)
Haaland arrives rested and motivated at a ground where he has a strong scoring record. Even money on the best striker in the world in a wide-open cup tie is worth backing.
Salah returns for what could be one of his final big occasions in a Liverpool shirt, having confirmed he will leave at the end of the season. His record against City is productive and he consistently raises his level in high-profile games.
Semenyo has been one of the standout wide forwards in England over recent months and is expected to operate down Liverpool’s exposed left channel. His recent shot volume supports the over on his shots on target line.
Manchester City vs Liverpool Model Projection
- Score Projection: Manchester City 3 – Liverpool 1
- Win Probability: Manchester City 57%, Liverpool 23%, Draw 20%
The projection points to a City win in an entertaining game. Home advantage, a fresher Haaland, and a Liverpool defense operating well below full strength are the key factors driving the numbers. The best value remains on Over 2.5 goals, where the market has not fully accounted for how exposed Liverpool’s backline is or how consistently City have scored at home this season.
