Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Prediction – 1/4/2026

The Sunday afternoon matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and the Dallas Stars has the potential to be the best game of the day on the ice. Dallas enters as a strong favorite after compiling a 25-9-7 record, but recent results indicate the Stars are anything but a sure thing. Montreal will try to upset the Stars on the road, but will need to overcome a rough scheduling spot to do so. Here, I break down this NHL matchup and provide you with my Canadiens vs Stars prediction for Sunday afternoon.

Our Canadiens vs Stars Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars
• Date & Time: Sunday, January 4, 2026, 2:00 PM ET
• Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Broadcast: ESPN+

Key Storylines

Recent form

• The Stars have struggled in their last few outings, entering this game without a win in their last four games. Dallas has allowed four goals in each game of their losing streak, including two losses to a Chicago Blackhawks team that is struggling itself.
• Montreal is on the second game of a back-to-back here, having lost to the St. Louis Blues on Saturday. Dallas has not played since New Year’s Day, giving them a sizable rest advantage going into this matchup from American Airlines Center.
• Both of these teams are in third place in their respective divisions and need wins to hold off the teams coming for their playoff positioning.

Goaltending

Montreal is expected to start Jakub Dobes, a young goaltender who has been solid in recent appearances and provies occasional high-impact performances. Dallas is likely to counter with Jake Oettinger, a more experienced netminder who has maintained respectable numbers in goals against and save percentage. Oettinger was named to the US Olympic team this week and will try to prove himself deserving of that selection over the next month or so.

Key skaters

• Canadiens: Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki continue to lead Montreal’s attack, with Caufield’s speed and finishing ability complementing Suzuki’s playmaking.
• Stars: Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen lead Dallas’ offense, combining scoring touch with distribution skills that challenge opposing defenders. Rantanen has already gone over 50 points so far this season.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Stars defeated the Canadiens 7-0 in their first meeting this season in Montreal.
• The Canadiens have gone over the total in 61% of their games this season.
• The Stars have stayed under the total in 51.2% of their games this year.

Canadiens vs Stars Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.