The Anaheim Ducks will travel to face the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday evening. The Lightning have struggled mightily going into this game. But they are favored to win at home over the Ducks in this contest. Before the puck drops in Tampa, continue reading to get my Ducks vs Lightning prediction for tonight’s game.
Our Ducks vs Lightning Pick
- Pick: Anaheim Ducks +1.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Anaheim Ducks @ Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 25, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Recent form
The Ducks enter this game with a 4-2-1 record this season. They are averaging 3.71 goals per game going into this contest. Their shot volume is solid and they’ve been winning the puck consistently in key moments. The Lightning limp into this game at 1-4-2, averaging only 2.57 goals per game. Their defense has allowed 3.43 goals per contest.
Goaltending
The Lightning’s netminding has been inconsistent. Starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevsky has posted a .885 save percentage with a goals-against average of 3.41. Ducks goaltender Lukas Dostal has been more stable with a GAA of 2.82 and a save percentage of .904. While neither is elite, Anaheim’s goalie gives them a better chance to hang with Tampa Bay based on the way he has played of late.
Key skaters
- Anaheim – Leo Carlsson and Mikaël Granlund both lead the Ducks with eight points through seven games. Their passing has helped create a balanced attack for the Ducks.
- Tampa Bay – Jake Guentzel stands out with seven points and five assists so far this season. But nobody has more than three goals on the Lightning this season.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson (Anaheim) | Over 0.5 points |
| Mikaël Granlund (Anaheim) | Over 0.5 assists |
| Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay) | Over 0.5 points |
Betting Trends
- Anaheim is 2-5 on the puckline so far this season.
- Tampa is also 2-5 on the puckline heading into this game.
- The Ducks have gone 4-3 to the over for the season.
- The Lightning have seen four of their first seven games stay under their totals.
Ducks vs Lightning Model Projection
Score Projection: Anaheim Ducks 3 – Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Win Probability: Anaheim Ducks 40% | Tampa Bay Lightning 60%
Final Thoughts
In what looks like a mismatch on paper, I think we will see a close game between Anaheim and Tampa. The Ducks are playing better hockey than the Lightning of late and that should be enough to help the Ducks cover the puckline as an underdog here. I’ll lay the vig to take the goal and a half with Anaheim on Saturday night.
