The Washington Commanders will face the Dallas Cowboys in a huge NFC East matchup on Sunday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. The Commanders enter the game with a 3-3 record, while the Cowboys sit at 2-3-1, making this contest a big one for both squads. Before it kicks off, you will find my Commanders vs Cowboys prediction below.
Our Commanders vs Cowboys Pick
- Pick: Under 55.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys
- Date & Time: Sunday, October 19, 2025, at 4:25 PM ET
- Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- Broadcast: FOX
Commanders vs Cowboys Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders -1.5 |
| Moneyline | Commanders -125, Cowboys +105 |
| Total Points | 55.5 |
Key Storylines
- Turnovers Plague Commanders: The Commanders committed three turnovers in their last game, including two by quarterback Jayden Daniels. They ended up losing that game by one point. Despite throwing three touchdown passes, Daniels’ late-game fumble proved costly and the team will need to do a better job of protecting the football going forward.
- Injury Concerns for Cowboys: Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb’s status for this game remains uncertain due to a high-ankle sprain sustained in Week 3. His absence has been felt, but George Pickens has stepped up in his place. Pickens has been providing a reliable target for quarterback Dak Prescott.
- Commanders’ Defensive Adjustments: The Commanders have signed former second-round pass rusher Drake Jackson to bolster their defensive line. With their defense allowing the most passing yards in the league, Jackson’s addition aims to improve pressure on opposing quarterbacks and disrupt offensive rhythms more frequently.
Quarterback Play
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels has shown flashes of brilliance, throwing for 211 yards and three touchdowns in the loss to the Bears. But his two turnovers, including a critical fumble, underscore the need for improved decision-making and ball security.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott has been a steady presence under center, but the absence of top receiver CeeDee Lamb has hurt the Cowboys. Prescott has 13 touchdowns and has only thrown three interceptions on the season so far.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Commanders’ Recent Performance: Washington is 3-3 against the spread this season. They have gone 2-3-1 in the over/under market so far this year.
- Cowboys’ Recent Performance: Dallas is also 3-3 against the spread this year. They have had four of their first six games go over their totals.
- Head-to-Head: Dallas holds a 79-49-2 advantage in the all-time series between these historic NFC East rivals. But the Commanders won their last meeting in January of 2025.
Commanders vs Cowboys Model Projection
- Score Projection: Commanders 28 – Cowboys 24
- Win Probability: Commanders 55%, Cowboys 45%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this game is for it to stay under 55.5 points. That is an incredibly high total, and I understand that decision given how good both offenses can be and how bad both defenses can be at times. But I think this game will slot in comfortably at around 50-52 total points and that we will see the under cash after a highly entertaining division matchup from AT&T Stadium.
