The New York Jets and New England Patriots will open Week 11 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football. New England is a heavy favorite going into this contest as they look to extend their lead at the top of the AFC East. But the Jets have won two games in a row and they will try to upset their AFC East rivals here. Before kickoff from Foxborough, continue reading to get my Jets vs Patriots prediction.
Our Jets vs Patriots Pick
- Pick: Jets +13.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Jets @ New England Patriots
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 13, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
- The Patriots are on a roll. New England has become one of the league’s best teams after a slow start, winning seven games in a row coming into Week 11. This game is an excellent opportunity for them to continue their hot streak against a struggling Jets squad.
- New York has strung together two consecutive wins, beating the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. The Jets got multiple special teams touchdowns to defeat the Browns last week, making up for a lackluster performance from Justin Fields and the Jets’ offense.
- The short prep week for this game benefits the Patriots. Playing at home on a Thursday typically favors the hosts and that is expected to be the case for the Patriots again in this game.
- The Jets are a longshot here, but rivalry games often bring unexpected results. The Jets will try to play spoiler against the Patriots here despite the Jets coming into this game in last place.
Quarterback Play
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye continues to ascend early in his pro career. He has accumulated 2,555 passing yards with 19 touchdown passes and only five interceptions through 10 games. Maye has become one of the favorites to win this year’s NFL MVP award and will try to keep rolling going in this game.
The Jets’ quarterback situation remains more fraught. Justin Fields has struggled mightily throughout the year. He has thrown for just 1,143 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. Fields is good at making plays with his legs, but he is expected to struggle throwing the ball given the Patriots’ strong pass defense.
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first of two regular-season games to be played between the Jets and Patriots this season.
- The Patriots are 7-3 against the spread so far this season.
- The Jets are 5-4 against the spread despite their 2-7 record this season.
- The Jets have had six of their first nine games go over their totals.
- The Patriots have gone 6-4 to the over entering Week 11.
Jets vs Patriots Model Projection
Score Projection: New England Patriots 27 – New York Jets 17
Win Probability: Patriots 73%, Jets 27%
Final Thoughts
The Patriots should get the job done at home against the Jets in Week 11. But I don’t love the idea of laying this big a number with the Pats. New England should win comfortably enough in this contest to be able to take their foot off the gas late in this game. I’ll go with the Jets to cover the spread as close to a two-touchdown underdog, though I understandably don’t feel great about backing the Jets either.
