The Miami Dolphins will face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8 of the NFL season on Sunday. Miami is struggling mightily going into this contest and they will try to pull off an upset here to get back into the win column. The Falcons are fighting to get back into the win column after losing on the road last week. Before kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium, continue reading to get my Dolphins vs Falcons prediction.
Our Dolphins vs Falcons Pick
- Pick: Dolphins +7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons
- Date & Time: Sunday, October 26, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- Broadcast: CBS
Dolphins vs Falcons Odds
| Category | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons −7.5 |
| Moneyline | Falcons −425 / Dolphins +320 |
| Total | 44.5 |
Key Storylines
The Dolphins’ season has become a disaster. They have a 1-6 record, their offense and defense are both underperforming, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had to apologize after taking shots at teammates in the press. The Falcons have been inconsistent but are still at .500 and have way more going for them than Miami at the moment.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was benched late in the fourth quarter after an atrocious 100-yard passing effort and three interceptions against the Cleveland Browns. He now leads the league with 10 interceptions and his rapport with coach Mike McDaniel appears strained.
Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is dealing with a bone bruise in his lower leg but is expected to play. If not, veteran Kirk Cousins looms as an alternative. The Falcons’ defensive unit has been strong against the pass and they will try to take advantage of the struggles of Tagovailoa and the Dolphins through the air in this game.
Quarterback Play
Tua Tagovailoa’s confidence must surely be shaken. His back-to-back games with three picks each rate among the worst performances of his career. His 24.1 passer rating against Cleveland is a career low. Penix has shown flashes in his first full season as the starter for the Falcons. It will be interesting to see how Penix handles playing hurt if he is able to go in this game.
Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 3-4 against the spread this season, but just 1-3 against the spread on the road.
- The Falcons are 3-3 against the spread overall and 2-1 against the spread at home.
- Five of Atlanta’s six games have gone under their totals.
- Six of the Dolphins’ first seven games have gone over their totals.
- Miami is 0-4 on the road this season.
- Atlanta is 2-1 at home for the year.
Dolphins vs Falcons Model Projection
Score Projection: Falcons 27 – Dolphins 21
Win Probability: Falcons 68%, Dolphins 32%
Final Thoughts
The Falcons should get the win at home in this Week 8 matchup. But I am going to go contrarian here and take the points with the Dolphins. Miami is a disaster at this point in time, but Penix being banged up should limit the production of the Atlanta offense. We should see a one-possession game, even if the Falcons ultimately get the win to improve to 3-1 at home on the year.
