The Sunday afternoon matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos is an important game in the AFC West race. The Chiefs (5‑4) travel to Denver to face the Broncos (8‑2) at Empower Field at Mile High with the Broncos in first place in the division standings. That spot has been occupied by the Chiefs in recent years and the Chiefs will try to get a win to move closer to the Broncos going forward. Before kickoff from the Mile High City, you can find my Chiefs vs Broncos prediction below.
Our Chiefs vs Broncos Pick
- Pick: Broncos +4
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- The Broncos enter this game with the better record (8‑2) and a perfect home record (5‑0) so far this season.
- The Chiefs are 5‑4 and facing a tough environment on the road. They have struggled away from Arrowhead Stadium, going 1-3 on the road heading into this important matchup.
- Injuries could impact things on both sides. The Broncos will be without key cornerback Pat Surtain II due to a pectoral injury, while running back JK Dobbins is expected to miss the rest of the season. On the Chiefs’ side, running back Isiah Pacheco is listed as out with a knee issue. That could affect Kansas City’s running game.
Quarterback Play
Chiefs signal‑caller Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,349 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions so far this season. His efficiency remains high and he thrives in big games and high-pressure environments. The Chiefs’ offense is ranked 5th in passing yards (248.9 per game) and the return of Rashee Rice has made life easier on Mahomes of late.
Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix has thrown for 2,126 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. His team‑leading rushing back J.K. Dobbins has 772 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground, but Dobbins is out and young running back RJ Harvey will have to carry the load in his place. Nix will also have to find a way to help make up for the loss of production in the running game in Dobbins’ absence.
Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 5-4 against the spread going into this contest.
- Denver is 4-5-1 against the spread going into Week 11.
- The Broncos are 6‑1 against the spread in their last 7 games against the Chiefs.
- The under has hit in 7 of the Broncos’ 10 games this year.
- The under has cashed 6 times in the Chiefs’ first 9 games.
Chiefs vs Broncos Model Projection
Score Projection: Kansas City 28 – Denver 27
Win Probability: Kansas City 64%, Denver 36%
Final Thoughts
We should see a tight game between these AFC West rivals on Sunday afternoon. As far as the outcome is concerned, I’d lean toward the Broncos covering the spread as an underdog at home. Mahomes and the Chiefs will likely pull this one out late, but the Broncos will keep the margin inside of a field goal in a game the home underdog could very well win outright.
