The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will meet in the marquee matchup of Week 9 this NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo bounced back from a two-game losing streak with a win last week. They will try to get a second straight win by beating a Chiefs team that they have a storied history against in recent years. Before this game kicks off from Orchard Park, continue reading to get my Chiefs vs Bills prediction for this huge game.
Our Chiefs vs Bills Pick
- Pick: Buffalo Bills +2.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 2, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
- Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
This matchup pits two of the AFC’s premier franchises and elite quarterbacks against each other. Patrick Mahomes for Kansas City and Josh Allen for Buffalo have been tearing up the league for years. Mahomes is operating at a high level in 2025. He has already thrown for 2,099 yards and 17 touchdowns through eight starts, with just four interceptions. Allen has completed 68.0% of his passes for 1,560 yards and 12 touchdowns with 4 interceptions. While Mahomes leads in pure passing output, Allen’s ability to make plays with his legs on designed runs makes this an evenly matched quarterback matchup.
Both of these teams have five wins under their belt so far this season. The Chiefs have won three games in a row and outscored the Raiders and Commanders 59-7 over their last two games. The return of Rashee Rice has helped their offense tremendously and Rice is expected to be a factor in this game for the Chiefs as well.
Buffalo had lost two straight games before their bye week. But they came roaring out of the bye with a 40-9 win on the road over the Carolina Panthers. This game will be a much tougher challenge for the Bills than a game against the Panthers was. But Buffalo comes into this game feeling good after their dominant Week 8 performance.
Quarterback Play
Allen has had the upper hand in regular-season matchups against Mahomes. Buffalo has won their last four regular-season meetings with Kansas City. Mahomes and the Chiefs have dominated the postseason matchups between these two teams during this era of both franchises. But this is not a postseason game and the Bills will certainly like their chances here.
Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 5-3 against the spread so far this season.
- Buffalo is 3-4 against the spread entering this week.
- Kansas City has gone under the total in five of its first eight games.
- Buffalo’s games have gone over the total four times in seven outings.
Chiefs vs Bills Model Projection
Score Projection: Bills 28 – Chiefs 24
Win Probability: Bills 55%, Chiefs 45%
Final Thoughts
If this was a playoff game, it would be hard to go against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But in the regular season, Buffalo has proven more than capable of winning games against the Chiefs. I’ll take the Bills to cover the spread as an underdog in this contest, in a game that Buffalo could very well win outright on their home turf.
