The final week of the NFL regular season will include an AFC South matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. The Colts are officially eliminated from playoff contention despite their strong start to the year, while the Texans have locked up a playoff spot and will try to do their part en route to an AFC South title. Before kickoff from NRG Stadium, you can find my Colts vs Texans prediction for Week 18 right here.
Our Colts vs Texans Pick
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| Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
- Date & Time: Sunday, January 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
The Houston Texans are playing for postseason positioning in the final week of the regular season. The Texans trail the Jacksonville Jaguars by one game in the AFC South standings, needing a win and a Jags loss to claim the division title. But the Texans have guaranteed themselves a Wild Card berth and can be seeded anywhere from third to seventh by the end of Week 18’s play.
The Texans have won eight games in a row going into Week 18 and their defense has been the driving force behind their success. Houston is allowing 16.6 points per game this year and they will like their chances to pile up defensive stops in this contest against an inexperienced quarterback for the Colts.
Indianapolis has lost six games in a row, with quarterback injuries torpedoing its once-promising season. It appears that the Colts are going to roll with Riley Leonard at quarterback in Week 18 instead of Philip Rivers. Not only does that likely spell the end of Rivers’ career (again), but it will put the Colts at a huge disadvantage against one of the best defenses in football.
Quarterback Play
CJ Stroud has not lit it up by any stretch of the imagination this season. But he’s done a good enough job of not racking up turnovers and making mistakes that would otherwise take games out of the hands of the Houston defense. As long as that remains the case this week, the Texans will like their chances to get an important win here.
As for the Colts, it will likely be Riley Leonard under center this week. Leonard has only seen meaningful action in one game this season. He has two interceptions and has yet to throw a touchdown pass in limited action. He will have his work cut out for him against an elite defense this week.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston won 20-16 in Indianapolis the first time these teams met this year.
- The Texans are 9-7 against the spread so far this season.
- The Colts are 7-7-2 against the spread going into Week 18.
- Houston is 5-10-1 in the over/under market this season, strongly favoring the under.
- Indianapolis is 8-8 in the over/under market this season.
Colts vs Texans Model Projection
Final Thoughts
