With the 2025 NFL regular season complete and Wild Card Weekend matchups set, the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars will meet in the first round of the playoffs at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. The Jags enter the playoffs after securing the AFC South with an eight-game winning streak to end the regular season. Buffalo enters as a battle-tested Wild Card team that is looking to spark a deep playoff run. Here, I break down this AFC Wild Card matchup and give you my Bills vs Jaguars prediction.
Our Bills vs Jaguars Pick
| Pick: | |
| Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date & Time: Sunday, January 11, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- Broadcast: CBS
Bills vs Jaguars Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bills -1.5 | Bills -120, Jaguars +100 | 50.5 |
Key Storylines
Jacksonville closed the regular season with authority, routing Tennessee 41-7 to lock up the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence capped off a strong year by throwing for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game, finishing the regular season on a high note. The Jaguars offense ranked in the top 10 in yards per play and showed improved balance between the pass and the run with Travis Etienne, who surpassed 1,000 rushing yards.
Buffalo’s path was far less comfortable. The Bills finished 11-6 after playing multiple playoff-caliber opponents late in the season. Josh Allen dealt with a foot injury in Week 17 but avoided serious damage and is expected to be at full strength for the playoffs. Allen ended the regular season with over 4,000 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns. Without Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow to contend with, Allen and the Bills will hope that this is their year to get to a Super Bowl despite being a Wild Card team.
Quarterback Play
This game will hinge on the duel between Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. Allen remains one of the most aggressive quarterbacks in the NFL, capable of extending drives with his legs or attacking downfield off broken plays. His postseason experience is a clear advantage, as he has started multiple playoff games and owns a strong career playoff passer rating.
Lawrence continues to take steps forward as a franchise quarterback in Jacksonville. He improved his decision-making this season and showed better chemistry with his receivers. While Lawrence has fewer playoff starts, his experience in the college and pro playoffs and ability to process quickly give Jacksonville confidence he can deliver at home here.
Betting Trends
- Jacksonville is 12-5 against the spread so far this season.
- Buffalo heads into the playoffs with an 8-9 record against the spread.
- Buffalo has gone over the total in 9 of its 17 games heading into the playoffs.
- Jacksonville is 10-7 to the over through the regular season.
Bills vs Jaguars Model Projection
Final Thoughts
