The Atlanta Falcons will face the New England Patriots in Week 9 of the NFL season on Sunday. The Patriots have become one of the best stories in the NFL this season and they will try to improve to 7-2 with a win at home here. Before this game begins in Foxborough, continue reading to get my Falcons vs Patriots prediction.
Our Falcons vs Patriots Pick
- Pick: Patriots −5.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 2, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Falcons’ quarterback uncertainty: Atlanta’s starter Michael Penix Jr. is dealing with a bone bruise to his knee and was sidelined in Week 8. He is listed day-to-day and his status will determine whether or not it will be him or Kirk Cousins under center for Atlanta.
- Atlanta missing weapons: Wide receiver Drake London (38 catches, 469 yards, two touchdowns) missed last week with a hip issue and remains questionable. Atlanta’s offense could be in for a rough day if their quarterback and skill position weapons are banged up.
- Patriots surging under their new regime and QB: Quarterback Drake Maye has thrown for 2,026 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions across eight games. He has an impressive 75.2% completion rate this season. The Patriots have won five straight and their offensive efficiency has been a big reason for that.
- Defensive edge for New England: The Patriots have allowed the third-fewest points of any team in the AFC so far this season. They will put whichever quarterback is on the field for Atlanta through a tough time in this matchup.
Quarterback Play
Drake Maye is ascending quickly for the Patriots. His 2,026 passing yards over eight games place him among the league’s best quarterbacks in terms of yardage this season. In Week 8, he completed 18 of 24 passes for 282 yards and three touchdowns and he will try to build on that performance in this game.
Atlanta is dealing with uncertainty at the quarterback position. Penix Jr.’s limited mobility and injury status are concerns. If he is not fully healthy, the Falcons’ offensive rhythm will suffer either with Cousins or someone else leading them.
Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 6-2 against the spread this season. They are tied for the best record in the league against the spread.
- Atlanta is 3-4 against the spread this season.
- New England is 4-4 on over/unders so far this year.
- Atlanta is 1-5-1 on totals going into Week 9.
Falcons vs Patriots Model Projection
Score Projection: Patriots 27 – Falcons 17
Win Probability: Patriots 70%, Falcons 30%
Final Thoughts
The Patriots are playing some of the best football in the NFL right now. They should take full advantage of the quarterback injury issues that are plaguing the Falcons right now. I’ll lay the points with New England, as they should win convincingly and move to 7-2 in what has been a shockingly good season from Mike Vrabel’s team.
