The Western Conference Finals take center stage at Frost Bank Center on Sunday night with the Oklahoma City Thunder carrying a 2-1 series edge over the San Antonio Spurs. Oklahoma City answered San Antonio’s Game 1 upset by taking the next two contests, including a convincing 123-108 victory on Friday. The Thunder adjusted defensively against Victor Wembanyama, received major scoring support from the bench, and continued to lean on the steady production of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. San Antonio now faces a critical spot at home, where a loss in Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 would leave the Spurs staring at a 3-1 deficit against one of the NBA’s deepest rosters.
Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 Pick
- Pick: Spurs -2.5
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
- Date & Time: Sunday, May 24, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
- Broadcast: NBC and Peacock
Key Storylines
Oklahoma City has done an impressive job of slowing down Wembanyama after the opening game of the series. The Thunder have become far more physical around the rim and are forcing San Antonio’s supporting cast to create offense. That adjustment paid off in Game 3, when the Spurs struggled to maintain offensive rhythm in key stretches of the game.
The health of both teams remains one of the biggest factors entering Sunday. Oklahoma City will be without Ajay Mitchell because of a calf injury, while Jalen Williams remains questionable with a hamstring issue. San Antonio expects De’Aaron Fox and rookie guard Dylan Harper to suit up, though both are still dealing with lingering injuries that affected their explosiveness in Game 3.
Bench production has tilted the series in OKC’s favor. Oklahoma City dominated reserve scoring in the last outing, outscoring the Spurs bench by a massive margin. Jared McCain provided an unexpected spark for the Thunder, while San Antonio struggled to find consistent offense whenever Wembanyama rested.
Key Players
San Antonio Spurs
- Victor Wembanyama: The franchise centerpiece remains the most important player on the floor for San Antonio. Wembanyama produced 26 points in Game 3 and continues to impact every possession defensively. But San Antonio will need even more scoring from him to make up for the difference in bench quality in this series.
- De’Aaron Fox: Fox gives San Antonio its downhill scoring threat and late-game shot creation. Even while dealing with an ankle issue, he remains critical against Oklahoma City’s aggressive perimeter defenders.
- Devin Vassell: Vassell quietly turned in one of the Spurs’ better performances in Game 3. His perimeter shooting and ability to defend multiple positions make him essential in a series where spacing matters heavily.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Gilgeous-Alexander continues to control the series offensively. His ability to attack the paint, draw fouls, and create mid-range scoring opportunities has kept San Antonio’s defense under pressure. His scoring prop for Game 4 sits around 28.5 points after another efficient outing in Game 3.
- Chet Holmgren: Holmgren’s rim protection and rebounding have become major factors in Oklahoma City’s defensive turnaround. His length alongside active perimeter defenders has limited San Antonio’s easy looks near the basket.
- Jared McCain: The rookie guard delivered a major lift off the bench in Game 3 with 24 points. If Williams remains limited or unavailable, McCain’s scoring punch could once again become a deciding factor.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City leads the Western Conference Finals 2-1 after winning Games 2 and 3.
- San Antonio won 4 of the 5 regular-season meetings between these teams.
- The Thunder covered the spread in both victories this series.
Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 Model Projection
- Score Projection: San Antonio Spurs 114 – Oklahoma City Thunder 109
- Win Probability: San Antonio Spurs 58%, Oklahoma City Thunder 42%
OKC has a depth advantage in this series, but injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell could reduce that advantage significantly if both are out of action for this contest. I am going to back the Spurs to win this contest and cover the spread as a slight favorite, as their desperation and a more favorable whistle when it comes to OKC’s physicality in the paint should help them to even this series at two games apiece before it goes back to OKC for Game 5.
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