New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Pick & Prediction – 1/4/2026

The New Orleans Pelicans (8-28) make the trip to South Florida on Sunday night to take on the Miami Heat (19-16) at Kaseya Center in Miami. With Miami installed as the favorite in this matchup and New Orleans in the midst of a long losing streak, the Heat will try to hold serve on the second game of a back-to-back. Before tip-off from Miami, you will find my Pelicans vs Heat prediction right here.

Our Pelicans vs Heat Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat
• Date & Time: January 4, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
• Broadcast: NBA League Pass

Key Storylines

The Pelicans enter this game losers of six straight, including a recent 122‑109 defeat at the hands of the Portland Trail Blazers despite 35 points from Zion Williamson. New Orleans has struggled defensively and has frequently been unable to slow opponents in transition.

Miami comes off a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves where they surrendered 125 points, but have overall been solid at home this season with a 12‑6 record in Miami. The Heat’s offense has been productive with contributors like Bam Adebayo and Norman Powell leading the way, while New Orleans has seen inconsistent production beyond Williamson and Trey Murphy III.

Miami’s recent performance against Denver also highlighted their ability to score in bunches when in rhythm, albeit against a team missing Nikola Jokic. Overall, Miami’s depth and recent form make them a deserving favorite in this spot, but they will have to overcome a rest disadvantage here.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• This is the first meeting between the Pelicans and Heat so far this season.
• New Orleans is 2-12 on the road so far this season.
• Miami is 12-6 at home on the year.
• The Heat are 20-15 against the spread so far this season.
• New Orleans is 20-15-1 against the spread going into this game.
• The Pelicans are 21-15 to the over this year.
• Miami has stayed under the total in 18 of their 35 games.

Best Player Props to Watch

Pelicans vs Heat Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.