Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction & Preview – 12/22/2025

The Dallas Mavericks (11‑18) travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans (7‑22) on Monday night in Southwest Division action in the NBA. New Orleans arrives on a four‑game winning streak, displaying a level of energy they have lacked for much of the season. Dallas is coming off a loss and will try to get a win to help turn around what has been a disappointing season so far. Before the fun begins in New Orleans, my Mavericks vs Pelicans prediction can be found right here.

Our Mavericks vs Pelicans Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans
• Date & Time: Monday, December 22, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
• Broadcast: NBA League Pass

Key Storylines

The Pelicans have generated momentum late, claiming their first four‑game winning streak of the season by dismantling the Pacers and getting an overtime win against the Rockets. Zion Williamson has been influential off the bench, leading the Pels with 29 points against Indiana and demonstrating why his health matters so much to this team. Trey Murphy III continues to produce around 21 points per game with solid efficiency, and Derik Queen’s playmaking and double‑figure rebounding recently has been a huge boost.

Dallas has shown spurts of promise, particularly with rookie Cooper Flagg emerging as a go‑to scorer and playmaker, but the Mavs faltered late against Philadelphia in their last game. They struggled from deep and turned the ball over at critical junctures. The Mavs are 11-18 so far this season and their injury report could take things from bad to worse going into this game. Flagg is questionable due to illness, while Klay Thompson and Max Christie are also questionable.

These are the bottom two teams in the Southeast Division so far this season and time is already running out for both of these teams to make a charge into the top 10 in the Western Conference standings. Wins in games like this one are so important to the playoff hopes of teams that are under the .500 mark for the season.

Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends

• The Mavericks and Pelicans split their head‑to‑head meetings this season, with Dallas winning 118‑115 in November and New Orleans taking a 101‑99 contest earlier in the season.
• The Pelicans are 18-10-1 against the spread this season, tied for the most ATS wins in the NBA.
• Dallas is 14-15 against the spread this year.
• The over has cashed in 18 of the Pelicans’ first 29 games (18-11).
• Dallas has seen 16 of its 29 games stay under their respective totals.

Best Player Props to Watch

Mavericks vs Pelicans Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.