The NASCAR Cup Series will be in Las Vegas for the South Point 400 on Sunday afternoon. This is the first race in the Round of 8 in this year’s playoffs. And with just a handful of points separating the eight drivers left in championship contention, this race is a big one for the last eight drivers standing. Before the green flag is waved in Vegas, continue reading to get my South Point 400 prediction.
Our South Point 400 Pick
- Pick: Kyle Larson
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
South Point 400 Preview
With just three races left before the Championship 4, every point matters. A win in Las Vegas would virtually guarantee a ticket to the title race without having to deal with the pressure of the next two weeks. But none of the eight remaining drivers are safe just yet and there is virtually no margin for error between them.
Las Vegas is an interesting venue at this time of year. The weather can be warm during the day and cool down significantly at night. Changes in the weather as the race wears on could change the way drivers attack the track and how the cars stand up to the 400 miles of action.
Joey Logano has won two of the last three runnings of this race. He enters this week in eighth place in the playoff standings and will try to make his move into the top four with a third win in four years in Vegas. But Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are expected to make life tough on Logano and the rest of the field here.
South Point 400 Track Info
- Location: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Nevada
- Track type: 1.5-mile D-shaped oval
- Race date & time: Sunday, October 12, 2025, 5:30 PM ET
- Race distance: 400 miles (267 laps)
Betting Odds
- Kyle Larson +450
- Christopher Bell +500
- Denny Hamlin +650
- Ryan Blaney +750
- William Byron +850
- Joey Logano +900
South Point 400 Prediction
When placing a bet on NASCAR, you’re banking on more than speed. You’re evaluating momentum, track history, and playoff dynamics. Here is my reasoning when betting on this race.
- Track history: Larson and Bell both have demonstrated strength at intermediate tracks and in recent Vegas outings. Larson won at Las Vegas previously in 2023 and could outperform Joey Logano.
- Current form: Larson has consistently been fast in the second half of the season, and his team’s aerodynamics and balance packages have matched up well with the intermediate oval template.
- Playoff situation: Larson enters this week in a tie for third place in the NASCAR Cup Series standings. But he is only four points clear of the cut line and he has plenty of incentive to race for the win here.
Thus, I pick Kyle Larson to win the 2025 South Point 400. He has the perfect combination of track history, current momentum, and playoff motivation to perform well. While Joey Logano should be a major threat to Larson in this race, I’ll take the favorite to make a huge move in the race to get to the Championship 4.
