Lucas Rocha and Stewart Nicoll will battle it out on Saturday night during UFC Fight Night from Rio de Janeiro. Both fighters dropped their UFC debuts in their last fights. They will try to even their record at 1-1 as members of the UFC roster with a win in this prelim matchup. I have analyzed this fight from all angles and you can find my Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll prediction below.
Our Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll Pick
- Pick: Stewart Nicoll by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Lucas Rocha | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 30 |
| Height | 5’3″ | 5’5″ |
| Reach | 64″ | 65.5″ |
| Record | 17-2-0 | 8-1-0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll Preview
Lucas Rocha enters this bout with a professional record of 17 wins and two losses. Rocha has secured 10 of his victories via knockout, including Davi Bittencourt in a Contender Series fight in 2023. The Brazilian took a loss to Clayton Carpenter in his UFC debut in October of 2024. He will try to get his first UFC victory in this fight and get his UFC career moving in the right direction.
Stewart Nicoll enters this fight with a record of eight wins and one loss. His only defeat came in his UFC debut against Jesus Aguilar in August of 2024, where he succumbed to a first-round guillotine choke. Prior to that, Nicoll had earned finishes in seven of his eight wins. Nicoll is the more well-rounded of the two fighters entering this bout. He has submission wins by armbar, triangle choke, and rear naked choke in his MMA career and is a talented striker as well.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline Odds: Lucas Rocha is a slight favorite in this fight at -115, while Stewart Nicoll is -105 to win.
- Over/Under: Oddsmakers have set the total for this fight at 2.5 rounds. The over is +130, while the under is -166.
- 10 of Rocha’s last 11 fights have been finished inside the distance.
- Only one of Nicoll’s nine career fights has gone the distance.
Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll Prediction
The most interesting thing about this fight is the fact that both fighters have a lot to prove in UFC. I don’t think we saw the best of either fighter in their first fight in the promotion and we will see at least one of these fighters perform better here. As far as who I think that fighter will be, I would lean toward it being Stewart Nicoll.
Nicoll is better at generating takedowns and is likely to be the busier striker as well. He has more paths to victory, even if Rocha will benefit from competing on home soil in Brazil. I’ll take Nicoll to win as a slight underdog in hostile territory here.
