Luan Lacerda and Saimon Oliveira will begin Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card with a bantamweight matchup in Rio de Janeiro. This card will start with Saimon Oliveira and end with Charles Oliveira in a huge night for Brazilian MMA. Which Brazilian will get the win in this prelim card opener? Continue reading to get my analysis of this fight, including my Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira prediction.
Our Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira Pick
- Pick: Luan Lacerda via Submission
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Tale of the Tape
| Statistic | Luan Lacerda | Saimon Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’4″ |
| Weight | 136 lbs | 144 lbs |
| Reach | 71.5″ | 72″ |
| Record | 12-3-0 | 18-6-0 |
Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira Preview
Luan Lacerda enters this bout with a professional MMA record of 12 wins and three losses. Of his 13 wins, 10 have come by submission. But Lacerda’s submission skills have not carried over into UFC. Since making his UFC debut, the Brazilian is 0-2 and was most recently knocked out by Da’Mon Blackshear in June of 2023. This is his first fight in over two years and Lacerda will try to get back on the right track in his return to the octagon.
Saimon Oliveira enters this fight with a record of 18 wins and six losses. He is also winless since joining UFC, going 0-3 in the promotion since making his debut in 2022. Oliveira has been knocked out in each of his last two fights and he will try to prevent the same from happening here, though it is a submission that Oliveira will have to worry about more than the threat of a knockout from Lacerda.
Betting Insights
- Lacerda is a heavy favorite to win this fight at -310. Oliveira is a +250 underdog heading into fight night.
- Oddsmakers have set the over/under for this fight at 1.5 rounds. The over is favored at -145, while the under can be had at +115.
- Seven of Lacerda’s last eight fights have ended inside the distance.
- Six of Oliveira’s last eight fights did not go the distance.
The betting odds for this fight suggest that Lacerda is going to control things in this prelim opener. It is hard to trust either of these fighters to deliver based on what we have seen from them in UFC so far, but Lacerda is expected to have the clearest path to victory.
Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira Prediction
I don’t love the idea of betting on either of these fighters given their history in UFC fights so far. But Lacerda’s superior grappling and a pretty significant weight miss from Oliveira have made it pretty clear that Lacerda is likely to get the win in this matchup. If Lacerda can close the distance and bring the fight to the ground, he should be able to secure a submission victory. I’ll take Lacerda to win by submission, either in the first round or early in the second.
